Rays’, Brewers’ Blazing Starts Show Controllable Pitching Remains Coin Of The Realm

A lot has changed early in the 2023 season. Stolen bases are way up, game times are way down, and infield overshifts are no longer allowed. A lot, however, has remained the same. While run scoring is up slightly (about 5%) over full-season 2022 averages, premium pitching remains the most valuable asset in the game.

And some teams do a better job of securing and developing it, especially on a per dollar basis, than others. In the American League, the Tampa Bay Rays have mixed some old tricks – turning middling prospects into standout major leaguers – with some new, like dipping their toe into the free agent market. In the National League, the Milwaukee Brewers struck gold a handful of times in the amateur draft and minor league trade markets, and filled out their rotation with bargain basement free agent and trade acquisitions. Of course it’s very early in the season, but these clubs appear to have the arms to keep them relevant all season, despite middling (at best) team payrolls.

The Rays’ top four starting pitchers allowed all of three earned runs in their first 29 innings this season, posting a 36/7 K/BB ratio while allowing only 14 hits. Only one of them, lefty Shane McClanahan, their 1st round pick (31st overall) in 2018, comes with any sort of clear pedigree. He was known for high-octane stuff but fairly limited durability in his days at South Florida. The Rays developed him cautiously but surely, navigating the lost 2020 COVID-19 minor league season – no small feat – with him emerging in 2021 as an MLB star from the get go.

I wrote about lefty Jeffrey Springs here just before spring training. He was a garden variety low-end prospect before the Rays acquired/saved him, and built a strong starters’ arsenal around his out pitch changeup. He was utterly dominant in his first 2023 start, hurling six no-hit innings with 12 strikeouts and one walk. Drew Rasmussen had never started a major league game when he was acquired from the Brewers in the Willy Adames trade in mid-2021. The Rays again saw something that a very intelligent rival did not see, and built around it. Did even they foresee the 16-7, 2.64, mark with a 180/44 K/BB that was to come up to this point? I doubt it.

Then there’s free agent signee Zach Eflin. He was one of the very first major leaguers to sign last offseason, to a three-year, $40 million contract. (The club also recently signed Springs to a four-year, $31 million extension.) It was very un-Rayslike on the surface. Dig a little deeper, though, and it makes perfect sense. Eflin allowed one of the very lowest average exit velocities among regular MLB starters as a Phillie last season. He’s battled nagging injuries a bit, and his surface numbers are ordinary save for his consistently low walk rate, but otherwise his price would have been out of the Rays’ range.

The club’s most talented starter, Tyler Glasnow, remains on the shelf as he has for quite awhile now. Once he’s healthy, they’ll have an embarrassment of riches that will be the envy of any major league club.

The Brewers have done it a little bit differently, and unfortunately for them, their method has an expiration date on it. Their two aces, righties Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff, have plenty in common. In addition to being flamethrowers with advanced command, both are making just over $10 million this season in their next to last year of arbitration eligibility. Both are set to become free agents at the end of the 2024 season, and if the club’s experience with former closer Josh Hader is any guide, either could become trade bait as soon as this summer if the club falters and any hope of long-term extensions totally dissipate.

Burnes was a 4th round pick in 2016 out of St. Mary’s and Woodruff was an 11th rounder in 2014 out of Mississippi State. Yes, pitchers come from everywhere and from every stage of the draft, but to come up with two aces with non-premium picks is very rare, and is the gift that keeps giving. Plain and simple, without those two picks, the Brewers are in a much different place competitively right now.

On a per-inning basis, the Crew has a third ace, and his name is Freddy Peralta, who was stolen from the Mariners after the 2015 season as part of a three-player low minor league package received for late-stage Adam Lind. He’s only pitched more than 85 innings once, but his 11.7 career strikeouts per nine innings is off the charts high for a starter. Though his MLB service time is roughly the same as Burnes and Woodruff, the club was able to sign him to a very affordable deal that includes $8 million team options in 2025 and 2026, which would have been his two first years of free agency.

The Brewers took a much less sexy approach to building the back end of their rotation. Lefty Wade Miley is 36 years old, and doesn’t throw the ball past anyone at this stage of his career, but he fills the zone with quality strikes and pitches to relatively weak, mostly ground ball contact. Fellow southpaw Eric Lauer came to Milwaukee with 3B Luis Urias in the larcenous deal that sent CF Trent Grisham and RHP Zach Davies to the Padres. He looks like your typical crafty lefty out on the mound, but when you look up at the end of the season, darned if he hasn’t struck out a batter per inning again. He’s one of the best #4-5 starters out there.

So these two teams have gotten it done in different ways, but both are clear 2023 contenders despite spending far less on overall payroll than many of their richer rivals. Staying power? The Rays clearly have some secret sauce that transcends individual pitchers, and are now doubling down by actually being more competitive with the cash. They’re not going away.

The Brewers are facing a pivotal 2023 campaign. Not only are the futures of Burnes and Woodruff at stake, Manager Craig Counsell is on the final year of his contract and has been noncommittal about his future. The future is now in Milwaukee, and it will be interesting to see if their front office exhibits any extra urgency as a result.