Polkadot Slides 3.2% as Crypto Treasury Bubble Threatens 2025 Market Stability

Polkadot (DOT) fell 3.2% to $3.92 in the past 24 hours as growing concerns over crypto treasury companies spark comparisons to the dotcom bubble, triggering risk-off sentiment across digital asset markets.

The fifth-largest smart contract platform by market capitalization, with a current price of $3.96, has been caught in the broader market selloff[1][2] as institutional investors reassess exposure to cryptocurrency holdings amid warnings from industry veterans about systemic risks building in the sector.

Market Context

The proliferation of crypto treasury companies has drawn alarming parallels to the dotcom era of the early 2000s, which saw internet stocks crash the economy by about 80%[2]. Mike Ippolito, co-founder of Blockworks, called these treasury companies “the 2025 equivalent of GBTC,” warning that “this is leverage getting injected into the system”[1].

Polkadot’s current price represents a 10% decline from $4.42 recorded one week ago[2], with trading volumes reaching $181.7 million in the past 24 hours[1]. The trading volume of Polkadot decreased 47.10% from the previous day, signaling a recent fall in market activity[5].

Nic Carter, partner at Castle Island Ventures, compared these publicly traded investment vehicles to GBTC, whose premium flip to discount precipitated the 2022 collapses of Terra/Luna, Three Arrows Capital, Voyager, Celsius, BlockFi, and FTX[1].

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, Polkadot faces significant headwinds. On the four-hour chart, Polkadot is bearish, while on the weekly timeframe, the 50-day moving average is above the price and falling, potentially acting as resistance[4].

Key technical levels show DOT trading below crucial support levels. In the short to medium term, Polkadot could see price drops to as low as $3.55, representing a critical support zone where buying opportunities might emerge[3]. DOT must respect its multi-year lows at $3.69 on a 3 to 5 week closing basis to avoid a breakdown[3].

The 50-day moving average is falling, suggesting a weakening short-term trend, while the 200-day moving average has been rising since September 22, 2025, indicating a strong longer-term trend[4]. This divergence creates a complex technical picture for traders navigating current volatility.

Volume analysis reveals concerning patterns. Over the last 24 hours, the trading volume of Polkadot reached $261.22 million[6], though this represents substantial variation across different exchanges, indicating fragmented liquidity conditions.

Fundamental Factors

The crypto treasury bubble concerns overshadow several positive developments in the Polkadot ecosystem. Companies beyond bitcoin are expanding the treasury model, with three firms launching for Solana, SharpLink Gaming raising $1 billion for Ethereum holdings, and VivoPower securing $121 million for XRP treasury operations[1].

The rapid emergence of crypto treasury companies has raised concerns that their leveraged positions could trigger cascading selling pressure in a bear market, with crypto long positions financed externally potentially facing margin calls[4].

Despite broader market concerns, Polkadot’s ecosystem continues advancing. The JAM technical upgrade, announced in April 2024, will completely replace the core chain with focus on implementing Agile Coretime, with the Web3 Foundation incentivizing developers with 10,000,000 DOT and 100,000 KSM[9].

Notably, this quarter marked the first net positive financial outcome for the Polkadot treasury since reporting began, with a net profit of 80,000 DOT after accounting for inflation and burn[2]. Polkadot’s treasury burns 1% of its balance every 24 days, and if 80% of transaction fees were directly burned, it could significantly impact DOT by reducing overall inflation[8].

“The same overzealous investor psychology that led to over-investment in early internet companies during the dotcom crash has not disappeared due to the presence of financial institutions in crypto[2],” notes Ray Youssef, founder of NoOnes app.

Market analysts tracking the treasury company trend express growing concern. The risk is that “these acquisition vehicles accumulate a lot of crypto at much worse terms than Saylor and eventually become forced sellers”[1], potentially creating systemic market disruptions.

Some crypto treasury companies may not prove to be diamond-handed, but managing this risk depends entirely on each company’s ability to anticipate cash flow needs and structure capital to sustain crypto holdings[4].

Outlook

Near-term price action remains heavily dependent on broader market sentiment regarding crypto treasury risks. According to price predictions, DOT is forecasted to trade within a range of $3.85 and $3.85 this week, with a minimal 0.01% increase expected by September 29, 2025[8].

For 2025, Polkadot is forecasted to see prices ranging from a low of $4.01 to a high of $13.90, with the critical 50% Fibonacci level at $14.04 playing a pivotal role[3]. However, these projections assume market stability and may require revision if the crypto treasury bubble concerns materialize into forced liquidations.

Key levels to monitor include immediate support at $3.69 and resistance at $4.04. Companies that term out debt, spacing when each tranche must be paid back, have better chances of surviving downturns[2] – a factor that will determine which treasury companies survive and which become forced sellers impacting assets like DOT.

As the crypto treasury narrative evolves, Polkadot holders face a complex landscape where ecosystem progress competes with systemic market risks reminiscent of past financial bubbles.

Learn more:
1. Polkadot price today, DOT to USD live price, marketcap and chart | CoinMarketCap
2. Crypto Treasury Companies Are All the Rage. Do They Pose Industry Risk?
3. Polkadot Ecosystem Digest – February 7, 2025: Latest Developments and Trends – Ecosystem – Polkadot Forum
4. Polkadot Treasury | Decentralized Funding for Innovation
5. Polkadot Price, DOT Price, Live Charts, and Marketcap: polkadot price, dot price, dot cryptocurrency
6. Crypto treasury companies pose a similar risk to the 2000s dotcom bust
7. Polkadot-API 2025 Q1 Update – Ecosystem – Polkadot Forum
8. State of Polkadot Q1 2025 | Messari
9. Polkadot (DOT) Price Prediction 2025 2026 2027 – 2030 – InvestingHaven
10. Crypto Treasury Stories Reflect Dotcom Bubble Mindset
11. Polkadot.ERI (Polkadot Ecology Research Institute) on X: “Sep 2025 Polkadot Ecosystem News 1/@Acurast has announced another milestone, with over 130,000 phones onboarded—made possible by its community members referred to as “Rebels.” The project also teased a big announcement coming soon. https://t.co/SG6sUGwSAA 2/@peaq has https://t.co/WMVgUK5xi4″ / X
12. Polkadot Treasury Net Flows Turn Negative, Will DOTUSDT Drop?
13. Polkadot (DOT) Price Prediction 2025 2026 2027 – 2030
14. Crypto Treasury Companies: Is It A Bubble? | Presto Research
15. Polkadot.ERI (Polkadot Ecology Research Institute) on X: “⭕️Sep 25 2025 Polkadot Ecosystem News 1/ @PhalaNetwork has launched a countdown to its dstack whitepaper. Over the next 3 days, it will release 1 fun fact daily about dstack — a zero-trust container that helps developers move, govern, and audit apps with ease — until the https://t.co/o1n8r7h3Av” / X
16. Polkadot Surges 6% as ETF Speculation and Treasury Burn Boost Hype
17. Polkadot Price: DOT Live Price Chart, Market Cap & News Today | CoinGecko
18. Presto Original Crypto Treasury Companies: Is It A Bubble? June 19, 2025
19. Polkadot Ecosystem: Full 2025 Guide
20. Treasury – Polkadot Wiki
21. Polkadot Price USD, DOT Price Live Charts, Market Cap & News
22. MSTR, NAKA, BMNR Punished as Crypto Treasury Bubble Further Deflates
23. Polkadot.ERI (Polkadot Ecology Research Institute) on X: “⭕️Sep 26 2025 Polkadot Ecosystem News⭕️ 1/ @Kiltprotocol has partnered with @AEON_Community to expand $KILT payment support to over 20 million merchants worldwide. This integration enables real-life crypto payments powered by Web3 identity—covering scenarios from daily https://t.co/zQjYidY8WG” / X
24. Polkadot (DOT) Breaks Above Key Resistance as Treasury Reforms Signal Major Upgrade
25. Polkadot (DOT) Price Prediction 2025, 2025, 2030
26. Is the Rise of Crypto Treasury Companies a Bubble or a Financial Innovation?
27. Polkadot Ecosystem Weekly Observations | Polkadot 2.0’s Final Update Scheduled for May 14; Polkadot Deployment Portal Near Completion with One-Click Deployment Imminent | by Polkadot.ERI | Medium
28. Polkadot Approves RFC-10: Will Burning Revenue be Bullish for DOT | CCN.com
29. Polkadot (DOT) Price Prediction 2025, 2026-2030 | CoinCodex
30. Crypto treasury companies add a new layer of risk
31. Polkadot Ecosystem Weekly Observations | Polkadot 2.0 Expected to Go Fully Live in April; Ethereum Update Roadmap Again Following in Polkadot’s Footsteps! | by Polkadot.ERI | Apr, 2025 | Medium
32. Why 2025 Will Be a Year of New Growth for DOT | by Polkadot.ERI | Medium
33. Polkadot Price Prediction , DOT Price Prediction , Price Prediction 2025 | Bitget
34. ‘Bitcoin Treasury Companies’ Are an Insane Bubble About to Pop | by The Long Game Journal | Sep, 2025 | Medium
35. Polkadot 2.0: Major Upgrades, Ecosystem Growth, and the Future of Web3 in 2025
36. Polkadot (DOT) Breaks Above Key Resistance as Treasury Reforms Signal Major Upgrade
37. Polkadot (DOT) Forecast is 5.843 USD for 2026-09-14; And 3.558 USD for 2030-09-14! Polkadot (DOT) Price Prediction 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030!
38. Crypto Treasury Narrative Bears Striking Similarly to Dotcom-Era Thinking
39. Snowbridge March 2025 Update – Ecosystem – Polkadot Forum
40. Subsquare | Polkadot Treasury Proposals

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