PEPE Coin Eyes 40% Rally: Real Or Pump Before Dump?

PEPE coin price is confusing everyone right now. It’s up 5% in the last 24 hours and more than 42% over the past year. However, in the last 7 days, the meme coin is trending lower, down around 9%.

So, what’s really going on with Pepe Coin? Is this meme coin gearing up for a breakout, or is it just another fake pump before the dump?

While price action is flipping between green and red, on-chain data tells a clearer story. Let’s break it all down.

7 Trillion PEPE Tokens Exit Exchanges, Easing Sell Pressure

Over the past week, PEPE Coin’s exchange reserves dropped by 2.73%, bringing the total supply held on exchanges down to 250.13 trillion tokens.

That means over 7 trillion tokens have been pulled out of centralized exchanges like Binance or OKX.

Why does this matter? Because when people take tokens off exchanges, they’re usually not looking to sell anytime soon. Instead, they might be moving them to self-custody wallets or DeFi platforms.

This tends to lower the risk of large sell-offs and is often seen as a bullish signal. Less token supply on exchanges equals less sell pressure, which offers more room for the price to grow.

OBV Reset Hints at Base Formation, but Bear Power Lingers

Traders often use On-Balance Volume (OBV) as an indicator to determine whether buying or selling pressure is stronger.

When OBV goes up, more money is flowing into the token. When it drops, more money is flowing out.

In PEPE’s case, OBV dropped by over $130 trillion recently. However, the trend is now flattening, and OBV is avoiding a new low below 1,925.83 trillion. This could mean that selling is done, and new buyers are slowly stepping in.

A reset like this often sets the stage for a new rally, especially if the price holds steady during the dip.

Yet, keeping an eye on the bear-bull tussle is often as important as the OBV metric. Why? Because it indicates who is winning the battle – bulls or bears.

In the present case, even though bear power is still present, it’s getting weaker.

But here’s the interesting part: even while bears had the upper hand, the PEPE price didn’t fall below $0.00001000.

This kind of strength usually means that those who are still holding PEPE aren’t panicking. Long-term holders, also called “strong hands,” tend to keep prices stable when weak hands leave.

Shorts Are Everywhere, but PEPE Coin Isn’t Dropping

According to the latest long/short ratio data, around 50.3% of open positions are shorts. In simple terms, that means half the market is betting that PEPE will fall. But it hasn’t.

When too many people short a coin, and the price doesn’t go down, it can lead to what’s called a short squeeze. This happens when short sellers are forced to buy back the token quickly, pushing the price up fast.

If PEPE breaks above $0.000011, it could easily trigger this type of squeeze. And that might just be the rally trigger.

Open interest in PEPE futures has fallen from $1.02 billion on July 23 to $590.89 million as of August 7, a massive 42% drop.

This means many traders have closed their leveraged positions, possibly due to liquidations or fear of volatility.

Now that leverage is out of the system, PEPE might be ready for a cleaner move, with less noise from over-leveraged trades.

Funding rates are also in slightly positive territory at 0.0073%, hinting that buyers may be returning without overpaying to stay in the game.

PEPE Coin Price Action: 40% Rally Needs One Key Break

Using the Fibonacci retracement tool from PEPE’s swing high at $0.000014 to the recent low at $0.0000095, we can see the next big resistance is $0.00001136.

PEPE is currently hovering near $0.00001049. If it can break and hold above $0.00001136, the next likely target sits near $0.000014, which would be around a 40% rally from current levels

This level also aligns with the OBV support, low bear power, and short-heavy sentiment; all of which could act like a springboard for the next leg up.

But then, a PEPE price drop under $0.0000098 can invalidate this bullish sentiment entirely.