Key Insights:
- CoinMarketCap Index shows no sign of an active altcoin season.
- Bitcoin remains dominant while altcoins trade sideways.
- Analysts expect possible shifts after rate cuts and ETF approvals.
The altcoin season has not started yet. Data from CoinMarketCap’s Altcoin Season Index shows weak altcoin performance as Bitcoin keeps its lead.
Analysts say the crypto market is still in a slow, bearish phase despite talks of rate cuts and possible ETF approvals.
The Reality About Altcoin Season
Talks about an altcoin season have grown louder, but signs of one are not showing yet.
Altcoin season is when many altcoins rally faster than Bitcoin. For now, Bitcoin remains stronger, and most altcoins are still struggling to move higher.
Crypto traders like Ash Crypto and Chiefy recently shared views on X that a new bull run could begin soon.
Chiefly mentioned October 20 as the start of a “Golden Altcoin Season,” linking it to expected rate cuts and ETF approvals. However, so far, there has been no clear breakout.
The market still shows a pattern of bearish consolidation, where prices move sideways and trading volumes stay low.
In simple terms, investors are waiting. This period often comes before a major move but can last for some time.
Charts that track market structure also suggest the crypto market is still in the accumulation stage. This is when smart investors quietly build positions, while most traders stay uncertain.
It is a phase that tests patience, as prices do not move much but often set the base for the next run.
Bitcoin continues to lead the market, which is typical early in a crypto cycle. In past years, altcoin seasons began only after Bitcoin finished its strong run and stabilized.
Profits then moved into Ethereum and other large-cap coins before reaching smaller altcoins. That rotation has not happened yet.
CoinMarketCap Index Points to Weak Altcoin Activity
CoinMarketCap (CMC) Altcoin Season Index helps track whether altcoins are doing better than Bitcoin. It looks at the top 100 coins (excluding stablecoins and asset-backed tokens) and compares their performance against Bitcoin over the last 90 days.
According to the tracker, if 75% of those coins do better than Bitcoin, it is called altcoin season.
Right now, the index shows no sign of that as altcoins are still behind Bitcoin in performance. The data shows that the market is far from the stage where altcoins start to outperform.
In the last major altcoin season in May 2021, the combined market value of the top 100 altcoins grew to about 130% of Bitcoin’s.
This time, that level has not been reached. It shows Bitcoin remains dominant, while altcoins are yet to gain strength. The index also shows that traders are being cautious.
Many are waiting for a stronger signal before making new moves. This lack of confidence keeps prices from rising quickly. Until more coins begin to beat Bitcoin’s returns, the crypto market will likely stay quiet.
What Could Happen Next
Some analysts still believe altcoin season could start later this year. They point to two possible rate cuts and the end of quantitative tightening as factors that might lift crypto markets.
If Bitcoin continues to rise and then slows down, money could move into Ethereum and other large caps.
The usual pattern begins with Bitcoin leading, followed by Ethereum, then large-cap coins like Solana. Smaller altcoins tend to move last when confidence returns. That process could take weeks or months.
For now, the crypto market remains cautious. Trading activity is lower, and most coins move within tight ranges. Notably, this slow phase could last until new economic changes or strong price action bring fresh momentum.
Altcoin season might still come, but the data shows it has not started yet. Investors watching for it may need more patience.
Until capital starts to flow from Bitcoin into other coins, the market will likely stay in its current consolidation stage.