As the 2024 U.S. presidential election looms, Kamala Harris has taken a surprising lead over Donald Trump on the decentralized prediction market Polymarket. The latest figures show Harris with a 54% chance of winning, while Trump’s odds have sharply declined from 72% to 44%. The crypto future will be closely tied to the candidate that wins.
Polymarket has emerged as a critical barometer for predicting the outcome of the 2024 election. The platform, where users can place bets on various political outcomes, has seen a noticeable swing in favor of Harris.
Her rise in the polls has been accompanied by a substantial increase in financial stakes. Harris now has a $66.9 million bet on her success, signaling growing confidence in her ability to secure the presidency.
Trump, despite his declining odds, still has $75.8 million riding on his victory, indicating that he retains a solid base of supporters in the market.
Among those betting on Harris is a trader known as “serus,” who has accumulated the largest number of “Yes” shares in favor of her victory.
With 2,427,229 shares valued at approximately $1.31 million, “serus” stands to gain significantly if Harris wins, currently holding an unrealized profit of $374,000.
Despite Harris’ rise, Trump still has his backers. A prominent trader operating under the alias “50-Pences” holds 4,376,933 shares on Trump winning. However, the overall market trend suggests a shift away from Trump as the election draws nearer.
Kamala Harris Leads in Popular Vote Predictions
In addition to leading in the general election odds, Harris is also ahead in Polymarket’s predictions for the popular vote. She currently holds a 77% chance of winning the popular vote, compared to Trump’s 22%.
The rise in Harris’ market odds comes shortly after her campaign’s engagement with the crypto community. On August 15, the Crypto4Harris initiative hosted a virtual town hall that attracted significant attention.
Key figures such as Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, Senators Kirsten Gillibrand and Debbie Stabenow, and investor Mark Cuban participated in the event.
Schumer’s announcement of his intention to push for a bipartisan crypto bill before the end of the year is seen by some as an effort to bolster Harris’ appeal among voters, particularly those interested in digital assets.
Donald Trump Family Eyes Crypto and DeFi Industry
As reported by The Coin Republic, Donald Trump Jr. has recently promoted a new Telegram channel, “The Defiant Ones,” hinting at the Trump family’s potential entry into the crypto and DeFi markets.
This development follows previous hints from Trump Jr. and Eric Trump about a significant move in the financial sector.
The launch of the Telegram channel “The Defiant Ones” suggests the Trump family’s potential entry into the DeFi market. Donald Trump Jr. has indicated that this channel will serve as the main source of updates for their crypto initiative.
Source: https://www.thecoinrepublic.com/2024/08/16/kamala-harris-takes-lead-on-polymarket-trumps-odds-slip-crypto-future-shaky/