June CPI Data Gets Released: How Will Crypto React?

Key Insights:

• June CPI rose to 2.7%, casting doubt on a July Fed rate cut. This has pressured Bitcoin so far, as speculation mounts.

• Bitcoin slipped from $123K to $116K, but important support levels still show signs of long-term strength.
• Traders see $117K as a buying opportunity, while all eyes turn to upcoming PPI data and Fed comments.
  

Bitcoin faced downward pressure this week as the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June showed a persistent inflation trend. 

This development shook investor confidence and likely triggered the pullback from Bitcoin’s recent highs. Considering the rising inflation for the second consecutive month and the dim interest rate cut hopes, the crypto market might have just entered one of its most important phases.

Let’s unpack what’s happening and why this may still be a buying opportunity for Bitcoin believers.

Inflation Rises Again, Dims Hopes for July Rate Cut

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its CPI data for June on July 15. 

According to the report, headline inflation rose 2.7% year-over-year, up from 2.4% in May. This marks the highest reading since February with core inflation (excluding food and energy prices) ticking up to 2.9%.

As it stands, this is the second consecutive month of rising inflation, and has just ended a five-month streak of falling numbers. Moreover, it has done much to raise investor fears about inflation being stickier than previously thought. 

Month-over-month, CPI rose by 0.3%, at its fastest pace in five months while core CPI increased by 0.2%.

Put simply, the data has cast doubt on a July interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the odds of a cut have dropped massively to between 4.25% and 4.50%.

Bitcoin Drops From $123K to $116K in Hours

Soon after the CPI release, Bitcoin’s price responded with a correction from its highs. 

The cryptocurrency, after rallying to a new yearly high of $123,218, retraced to $116,500 within hours. This move wiped out several overleveraged positions and brought the market back to a more neutral footing.

Probably de-risking ahead of the CPI print. pic.twitter.com/mHn9IDJDZr

— Kyledoops (@kyledoops) July 15, 2025

By Wednesday, Bitcoin is hovering around $118,000 and is showing signs of recovery. However, the cryptocurrency is still trading below the critical $120,000 resistance.

The sell-off was likely caused by a combination of macro uncertainty and technical resistance, with traders de-risking ahead of more inflation data.

Why Should You Worry About the CPI Data?

Bitcoin has become more and more sensitive to macroeconomics over the last few years.

This latest reading shows that interest rates will likely stay high in the near term, which is historically bearish for risk assets like crypto. At least in terms of demand.

Another aspect of these inflation fears are the geopolitical tensions, especially in the Middle East. According to analysts, disruptions in oil supply, especially in the Strait of Hormuz could be a major reason for the rise in transportation and energy costs.

These are factors that push up consumer prices and lead to CPI jitters.

In just 2 months, CPI inflation in the US has risen from 2.3% to 2.7%.

Critics will blame tariffs, praisers will blame base effects.

Regardless, the Fed will not cut interest rates this month.

Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops.

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) July 15, 2025

Trump’s tariff policies are also being blamed for these rising costs. Businesses, which initially tried to shield consumers from higher import duties, are now passing on those costs. 

As a result, price pressure remains strong, and the FED continues to be cautious about easing its monetary policy.

Which Price Levels Should You Watch Following the CPI Data Release?

For Bitcoin bulls, the important area to watch sits between $119,250 and $120,700. This zone previously acted as a sell-side imbalance, which means that there are likely unfilled buy orders sitting there. 

A clean breakout above this level could be a sign of fresh momentum, and could even push Bitcoin back towards or even beyond its $123,000 high.

However, if inflation data continues to disappoint and macro conditions remain tight, a deeper correction could be on the horizon. The fair value gap between $113,700 and $115,300, which aligns with Bitcoin’s 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) could act also as a strong support zone. 

If that doesn’t hold, Bitcoin might even retest the former all-time high near $112,000, even though this scenario currently seems less likely.