Key Insights:
- An analysis of the altcoin season reveals that altcoins appear far closer to a bottom than a top.
- Bitcoin’s higher-timeframe trend from the 2022 lows remains intact.
- The macro picture is also turning in a direction that usually gives crypto room to run.
An analysis of the altcoin season reveals that altcoins appear far closer to a bottom than a top. That’s the central message from the latest macro signals, and the chart confirms it.
The Russell 2000 (IWM) just posted its strongest monthly close ever and is now pushing into its 2025 highs at the top of its long-term range. That’s important because this index often mirrors shifts in U.S. liquidity.
Altcoin Season Gains Momentum as Russell 2000 Hits Record Highs
Small caps breaking major resistance often signal rising risk appetite. In previous market cycles, similar market activity pushed Bitcoin higher and altcoin rallies followed later.
A similar setup unfolded in 2007, 2015, 2018 and 2021. Once again, the Russell 2000 is retesting its peak, yet Bitcoin and the wider altcoin complex are still trading below theirs.
Historically, this gap has often preceded large altcoin expansions.
Bitcoin’s Bullish Higher-Timeframe Trend Supports Mid-Cycle Rally
Bitcoin’s higher-timeframe trend from the 2022 lows remains intact, which also supports the altcoin season optimism. Despite pullbacks on the daily chart and the loss of some shorter-term EMAs, the long-term structure is still bullish.
Price action resembles a mid-cycle drawdown rather than the start of a full bear market.
BTC also appears to be re-aligning with equities after months of decoupling. This is another constructive sign.
When Bitcoin moves with risk assets instead of against them, it usually signals a healthier environment for trend continuation.
Bitcoin has never slipped into a long bear market at the same time U.S. small caps were hitting new highs.
In every major downturn in 2014, 2018, and 2022, the Russell 2000 had already rolled over well before Bitcoin began to break down. That is not the case today.
Macro Catalysts Point to Extended BTC and Altcoin Cycle Into 2026
The macro picture is also turning in a direction that usually gives Bitcoin and altcoins to run upward. The Fed has already started cutting rates, taking some of the pressure off risk assets after the rough stretch in 2022 and 2023.
And several big banks now think policy could drift toward a light version of QE by 2026 as government funding needs to climb.
In Washington, fiscal conversations are drifting toward stimulus-style ideas again—ranging from tax adjustments to tariff-linked payments.
Nothing here is set in stone, but the tone from policymakers has clearly shifted, and markets usually pick up on that long before any official changes land. That’s why more analysts are now leaning toward a 2026 cycle peak instead of 2025.
When you combine those expectations with the Russell 2000 hitting its strongest monthly close ever and Bitcoin still holding its long-term trend, the takeaway is simple: liquidity looks like it’s improving, not tightening.
That’s why Bitcoin and the broader altcoin market are not trading like assets on the verge of a deep bear market.
Instead, the structure resembles an extended cycle, one where both BTC and altcoins still have room to push into new highs if today’s environment remains in place. Under these conditions, a runway into 2026 looks increasingly realistic.