Iran’s crypto market spikes 700% after strikes – Is this capital flight or…

As March began, war headlines have taken center stage, and the crypto market has been responding in complex ways.

When news broke of U.S. and Israeli strikes on Tehran on the 28th of February, withdrawals from Nobitex, Iran’s largest crypto exchange, surged. Nearly $3 million left the platform. 

Undoubtedly, for a country where Nobitex processed roughly $7.2 billion in transactions in 2025 and serves more than 11 million users, such a spike immediately raised questions.

For those unaware, Nobitex plays a critical role in Iran’s digital economy. It allows users to convert the rapidly weakening Rial (official currency of Iran) into crypto assets like Bitcoin [BTC] or USDT and move those funds to private wallets or foreign exchanges.

Is this ‘capital flight’?

Elliptic reported that shortly after the explosions in Tehran, funds began flowing toward overseas platforms known to serve Iranian users. At first glance, this appeared to signal ‘capital flight’.

Source: Elliptic

‘Capital flight’ typically occurs when people lose confidence in their domestic economy and shift wealth into safer assets to avoid currency collapse, seizure, or financial instability.

However, clarifying the situation in Iran, Ari Redbord, Global Head of Policy at TRM Labs, in a private e-mail sent to AMBCrypto said, 

“What we’re seeing in Iran is not clear evidence of mass capital flight, but rather a market managing volatility under constrained connectivity and regulatory intervention.”

With the Iranian Rial trading at roughly 1,314,545 per U.S. Dollar in free markets, concerns about currency weakness are understandable.

However, movement alone does not automatically prove mass economic escape. Crypto makes cross-border transfers easier, but not every outflow equals panic.

According to TRM Labs, too, the broader picture actually points to contraction, not expansion. Following the strikes, the Iranian government imposed a 99% internet blackout, severely limiting market access.

Retail traders were disconnected, automated systems stopped functioning, and market makers were disrupted. 

Market under pressure

Moving forward, TRM Labs also highlighted that the overall transaction volumes declined by 80% between the 27th of February and the 1st of March.

Thus, the reported $3 million spike at Nobitex appears to have been an internal wallet transfer for liquidity management, not widespread user withdrawals. 

Taken together, the data suggest a market under pressure and heavy state control, not an uncontrolled rush for the exits.  Remarking on the same, Redbord added,

“In moments of geopolitical escalation, crypto markets often reflect both financial stress and infrastructure strain.”

Past unrest and the gloabl crypot market paint a confusing picture

This was not the first time such a spike happened.

On the 9th of January, during civil unrest, there was another large wave of withdrawals. That event was also followed by a government-imposed internet blackout.

Inside Iran, fear was visible. Globally, however, the picture looked different. The total crypto market capitalization climbed to around $2.32 trillion, rising 2.37% in 24 hours.

On the surface, the move appeared constructive.

However, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index stood at 14, signaling “Extreme Fear.” Prices were rising, but confidence remained fragile.

As tensions in Tehran eased, Bitcoin’s safe-haven narrative faced a real-time test.

This pattern was not new. During crises, such as Venezuela’s hyperinflation or repeated unrest in Iran, citizens often turned to crypto to protect their savings.

Taken together, the data suggested crypto remained relevant, though far from a flawless refuge.

Final Summary

• While citizens reacted quickly to geopolitical tension, exchange restrictions and central bank intervention limited large-scale movement.
• With the currency trading near historic lows, digital assets remain an attractive hedge against devaluation.