Federal Reserve’s “Hawkish” Rate Cut and Crypto Implications

Paul Eitelman of Russell Investments projects a ‘hawkish’ Federal Reserve rate cut by 25 basis points, expecting a terminal rate between 3.25% and 3.5%.

Market participants may adjust portfolio allocations, focusing on duration risk, as Eitelman anticipates Treasury yields exceeding fair value with potentially gradual rate adjustments.

Federal Reserve’s Rate Cut Strategy and Market Implications

Russell Investments anticipates the Federal Reserve will adopt a “hawkish” 25 basis point rate cut, establishing a terminal rate of 3.25–3.5%. Paul Eitelman, Chief Investment Strategist, suggests this gradual approach may shape the macroeconomic landscape.

This adjustment supports the strategic allocation of government bonds, particularly as current yields peak. Such a tactical shift might enhance bond market stability, potentially impacting broader financial markets.

“I think the Fed will lower rates two to three times this year, and I anticipate a new normal target rate of around 3.25% over the next one to two years.” — Russell Investments Research

Market analysts and institutional investors are closely observing these developments. Despite no direct mention of crypto assets, analysts infer that lower yields will bolster risk assets, indirectly influencing Bitcoin and Ethereum dynamics.

Crypto Market Reactions and 2025 Projections

Did you know? Paul Eitelman’s strategic view on a gradual reduction of interest rates resonates historically, similar to the 2019 pre-emptive cuts which aimed to avert economic risks related to trade uncertainties.

As of December 9, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) is priced at $90,173.23, with a market cap of $1.80 trillion. BTC’s market dominance stands at 58.60%, impacted by recent price fluctuations of -1.39% over 24 hours and -19.35% over 90 days, according to CoinMarketCap.

Coincu research indicates that the Federal Reserve’s anticipated rate changes could influence financial markets by altering risk appetites, particularly affecting rate-sensitive crypto assets. Market participants might adjust portfolios aligned with expected interest rate adjustments.