ETF Filing Signals Expanding Horizon for Crypto Investments

TLDR

• Bitwise has submitted a 19b-4 filing to the SEC for a Dogecoin ETF, with Coinbase Custody and BNY Mellon managing assets
• Polymarket shows approval chances for a Dogecoin ETF climbed to 66% from 55% previously
• Despite ETF progress, DOGE price has dropped by 15.79% to $0.19, with trading volume declining by 11.69%
• Multiple asset managers including Grayscale and Rex Shares are also pursuing Dogecoin ETF approval
• DOGE’s price found support at $0.1826 and is showing early signs of a potential recovery

Dogecoin’s path to mainstream investment accessibility took a major leap forward this week as Bitwise submitted a crucial 19b-4 filing to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for its proposed DOGE ETF. This development comes amid price volatility for the popular meme cryptocurrency.

NYSE Arca filed the 19b-4 form on behalf of Bitwise, moving the asset manager closer to offering regulated Dogecoin exposure through a traditional exchange-traded fund. If approved, the Bitwise Dogecoin ETF would operate under NYSE Arca Rule 8.201-E for Commodity-Based Trust Shares.

The proposed ETF structure includes Coinbase Custody serving as the custodian for the fund’s assets, while BNY Mellon will handle cash management, administration, and record-keeping duties. This arrangement follows the standard framework established by recently approved Bitcoin ETFs.

Bitwise had previously filed an S-1 registration for its Dogecoin ETF in January, making this 19b-4 submission the next required step in the regulatory process. The combination of both filings signals Bitwise’s commitment to bringing a DOGE ETF to market.

The ETF would use a cash creation and redemption model, meaning investors wouldn’t transact with actual Dogecoin. Instead, the fund’s Net Asset Value will be calculated daily using the CF Dogecoin-Dollar Settlement Price to ensure accurate market valuation.

Market Analysis

Market sentiment regarding approval chances has improved markedly. According to prediction market Polymarket, the probability of a Dogecoin ETF receiving approval in 2025 has risen to 66%, up from 55% just one day earlier. This surge in confidence suggests growing optimism among traders about regulatory prospects.

Bitwise isn’t alone in the race for Dogecoin ETF approval. Several asset managers including Grayscale and Rex Shares have submitted their own proposals. Among these contenders, Grayscale appears to be leading the pack, with the SEC already acknowledging receipt of its filing.

Despite the positive regulatory momentum, Dogecoin’s price performance has struggled recently. DOGE has fallen by 15.79% to trade around $0.19, with trading volume also declining by 11.69%. This price action indicates a disconnect between long-term institutional developments and short-term market sentiment.

On the technical front, DOGE established a recent low at $0.1826 and has shown signs of consolidation. Price action has broken above a bearish trend line with resistance at $0.1900 on hourly charts, suggesting potential for recovery.

The immediate price outlook includes resistance levels at $0.2050 and $0.2120, representing key hurdles for any meaningful recovery. A successful move above $0.2195 could potentially open the path toward $0.2350, while failure to break above $0.2050 might lead to retesting support around $0.1950 or even $0.1820.

Technical indicators provide mixed signals. The hourly MACD appears to be losing bearish momentum, while the Relative Strength Index has climbed above the 50 level, indicating building strength in the short term.

The push for cryptocurrency ETFs extends beyond just Dogecoin. Market participants have noted increased activity around potential ETF proposals for other major altcoins including Cardano, Solana, Polkadot, Litecoin, and XRP. This broader trend highlights the evolving regulatory landscape under the new administration.

For potential investors, a Dogecoin ETF would represent a regulated avenue to gain exposure to the meme cryptocurrency without the complexities of direct ownership. The ETF structure would provide familiar investment mechanics and potential tax advantages compared to spot market purchases.

While the SEC has recently approved spot Bitcoin ETFs after years of rejections, memecoin ETFs face additional regulatory scrutiny due to their higher volatility and different use cases. However, the precedent set by Bitcoin ETF approvals has created a potential pathway for Dogecoin and other cryptocurrencies.

The next key milestone in the approval process will be the SEC’s formal acknowledgment of the 19b-4 filing, which would start the regulatory review clock. From there, the agency typically has 240 days to make a final determination, though decisions often come sooner.

Market observers will be watching closely for any comments or feedback from regulators that might indicate the likelihood of approval. In the meantime, DOGE price action will likely continue responding to both the ETF narrative and broader cryptocurrency market trends.