The week from August 18 to 24, 2025 promises to be decisive for the financial markets and particularly for the crypto sector. Between the Jackson Hole symposium, macro data from the UK and Canada, record flows on Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, and on-chain movements, investors are preparing for days of high volatility.
Jackson Hole: all eyes on Jerome Powell, the crypto market awaits
The highlight will be the speech by Jerome Powell, chairman of the Federal Reserve, at the Jackson Hole symposium on August 23 at 04:00 CEST.
The markets are waiting for signals on the trajectory of US monetary policy:
- A restrictive tone (persistent inflation, high rates for longer) would strengthen the US dollar and could penalize risky assets like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH).
- On the contrary, a more dovish speech would pave the way for rate cuts and would boost crypto and stocks.
Historically, Powell’s speeches at Jackson Hole have always triggered strong movements in currencies and global markets. 2025 will be no exception.
Inflation and geopolitics: UK, Canada, and Ukraine in the spotlight
On August 20, data on UK inflation (expected at 3.6% YoY) and on the Canadian CPI (forecasted at 2%) will be released.
These numbers will weigh on the decisions of Bank of England and Bank of Canada:
- Higher inflation = more aggressive central banks.
- Lower inflation = room for accommodative policies.
On the geopolitical front, the summit on August 18 between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskiy in Washington could change the global sentiment. A truce in Ukraine would give oxygen to the markets; new tensions could risk pushing up energy, currencies, and crypto.
Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF: record inflows
The ETF sector continues to churn out impressive numbers.
- The BlackRock Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) recorded net inflows of 888 million dollars in the week ending August 15, with an AUM close to 80 billion.
- The ETF ETHA by BlackRock on Ethereum recorded a daily record with 519.8 million dollars (114,000 ETH) of inflows.
In total, Ethereum ETFs attracted 2.91 billion in just one week, nearly triple compared to Bitcoin.
This confirms the growing institutional confidence in Ethereum, fueled by restaking, Layer 2, and the expansion of DeFi.
Even ETF on Solana (SOL) and other altcoins show progress, but the BTC vs ETH duel remains the main barometer for investors.
Derivatives and volatility: calm before expiration
In the Bitcoin futures at the CME, the open interest has dropped to 138,000 BTC, the lowest in the last four months. A sign of reduced speculative leverage.
The picture is different for the Deribit options, expiring on August 22: many positions are concentrated on strikes between $100,000 and $110,000 for BTC, which could trigger short-term volatility.
Meanwhile, the funding rate on perpetual remains slightly positive, indicating a bullish sentiment, even if the momentum is cooling down.
On-chain analysis: Ethereum and Layer 2 shine, Bitcoin under pressure
The on-chain data shows a mixed picture:
- Arbitrum has reached 3.39 billion dollars in TVL, an annual high, thanks to the DeFi boom and yield farming on Layer 2.
- Instead, Glassnode reports an increase in Bitcoin deposits on exchanges, historically an indicator of possible selling pressures.
On the stablecoin front:
- Tether (USDT) has issued over 1 billion new tokens on Ethereum on August 15.
- USDC increased the supply by 2.9 billion in July, bringing the total supply to 67.5 billion.
The liquidity in stablecoin therefore continues to grow, representing potential fuel for future crypto rallies.
Sector trends: DeFi expanding, NFT and RWA under observation
- DeFi: growth of TVL on Arbitrum, Base, and Optimism, with users increasingly oriented towards Layer 2 solutions.
- NFT and gaming: low volumes, but collections like BAYC and marketplaces like Blur endure.
- RWA (Real World Assets): protocols like Ondo Finance bring bonds and traditional assets on-chain, capturing institutional interest.
Outlook of the week: three key factors
Investors will need to monitor three main variables:
- Powell at Jackson Hole – crucial to understand the direction of the Fed.
- Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF – institutional flows remain the engine of liquidity.
- On-chain and stablecoin – mixed signals between confidence (growing liquidity) and risks (BTC deposits on exchanges).
Conclusion: is the crypto market ready to explode?
The week of August 18-24, 2025 will be dominated by Powell, macro data, and institutional flows on ETFs.
The growth of liquidity through stablecoin and ETFs, along with the boom of Layer 2, highlights solid foundations for the crypto market. However, the increase in Bitcoin deposits on exchanges and geopolitical uncertainty call for caution.
In summary: the market is full of potential, but the coming days will tell if we will witness a new bull leg or a phase of consolidation.
Source: https://en.cryptonomist.ch/2025/08/18/crypto-weekly-top-news-powell-at-jackson-hole-record-etf-and-on-chain-signals/