Key Insights:
- Crypto prices face uncertainty as Trump’s tariff policies dominate market discussions.
- Historical data from 2018 suggests tariffs may not be bearish for digital assets.
- Analyst predicts bullish outcome despite short-term volatility concerns.
Crypto prices are facing scrutiny as discussions around Trump tariff implementation intensify. This has prompted debates about potential market selloffs.
Analyst Dan Gambardello presented his view in recent crypto news and suggested that historical precedent from the 2018 tariff period shows these policies may not cause the bearish outcome many investors fear.
The analysis comes as multiple major macro events converge in the coming week and create potential volatility for digital asset markets.
Crypto Prices: Trump Tariff Policies Echo 2018 Market Dynamics
The analyst drew direct parallels between current Trump tariff discussions and the events of late 2018. During that period, the crypto prices, alongside the broader financial market, experienced intense fear and speculation about economic recession.
The crypto news cycle at the time was dominated by bearish predictions and concerns about how trade policies would impact risk assets. December 26, 2018, was a turning point when a massive bullish reversal began.
Gambardello explained that the Federal Reserve’s response to the 2018 Trump tariff situation proved more significant than the tariffs themselves.
Jerome Powell ultimately blinked, the Fed pivoted, and quantitative tightening came to an end.
The analyst sees the current Q4 2025 period following a similar trajectory, with Trump implementing reciprocal tariffs while ensuring American trade interests are protected.
The comparison extends to investor sentiment patterns. In March and April of the previous cycle, widespread panic about a recession dominated discussions.
Crypto prices appeared poised for extended downturns. The reality proved opposite, with the bear market low of 2018 giving way to substantial gains once the Fed adjusted its monetary policy stance.
Crypto Market Awaits Major Macro Events this Week
Multiple economic events are scheduled for the coming week that could impact crypto prices. Quantitative tightening is set to end on Monday, followed by an FOMC rate cut on Tuesday.
Wednesday brings Federal Reserve money printing estimated at $1.5 trillion. Thursday features a potential US-China trade deal, while Friday includes S&P 500 earnings reports. Saturday marks the tariff deadline.
These macro events are what Gambardello described as “massive, massive” catalysts that play directly into the business cycle dynamics affecting digital assets.
Recent crypto news shows that China’s top trade negotiator has reached a consensus with US counterparts on tariff and export control issues.
The negotiator committed to improved communication with US officials and suggested progress toward resolving trade tensions.
This development comes as speculation mounts that the Trump tariff situation may reach a resolution faster than many expected.
Bitcoin Consolidation Masks Underlying Strength
Gambardello pointed to Bitcoin’s extended consolidation around $100,000 as evidence that the true bull run has not yet occurred.
While crypto prices for Bitcoin have already broken all-time highs, the asset has been consolidating for nearly a year at this level.
The analyst compared this to August 2020, when Bitcoin was approaching but had not yet broken its previous all-time high before making its parabolic move.
The relationship between gold and crypto prices also factors into the analysis. Gold recently showed signs of potentially topping out after a strong run.
Historical patterns suggest that when gold topped in August 2020, altcoins continued consolidating before eventually breaking into their bull run.
The analyst noted that crypto prices for altcoins did not immediately surge when gold peaked but rather experienced further consolidation and even dips before the major move higher.
Altcoin Market Shows Low Risk Readings
Current risk model readings for the altcoin market cap chart sit at low levels of 21, according to Gambardello.
This suggests that despite Bitcoin’s position above $100,000, the overall altcoin market has not entered its bull phase.
The crypto news cycle has been dominated by discussions of when alt season will begin, but momentum indicators suggest room remains for upside movement.
The analyst noted that Trump 2.0 brings a fundamentally different regulatory environment for digital assets compared to previous administrations.
The pro-crypto stance of the administration, combined with a supportive SEC, creates tailwinds that did not exist during the 2018 Trump tariff period.
Gambardello cautioned that the coming week could bring substantial volatility regardless of the medium-term bullish thesis.
He warned against using leverage during this period and noted that crypto prices might experience short-term selloffs.