The US Senate’s new budget deal could end the 40-day shutdown, restoring market confidence and optimism among crypto traders.
A long wait may be ending for traders who have been tracking the shutdown story since early October.
The US Senate reached an agreement on a three-part budget package that could fund the government and reopen federal operations.
Politico reported that the bill has enough support to clear the 60-vote hurdle. The final vote still needs to take place, although Senate leaders noted that support has strengthened during the latest round of negotiations.
How Past Shutdowns Shaped the Crypto Market
The current shutdown has lasted more than 40 days, the longest since January 2019. After that episode, Bitcoin moved from 3,550 dollars to around 13,000 dollars across five months.
Traders study this type of moment because drops during political fights tend to create room for later swings.
Since 1976, the U.S. has faced ~20 government shutdowns, most lasting ~8 days on average. Notable examples:
– 2018–19: 35 days (longest, border wall dispute)
– 2013: 16 days (ACA dispute)
– 1995–96: 21 days (budget standoff)📊 Patterns & lessons:
– Most shutdowns last less than… pic.twitter.com/xf1KDK1aX3— raullen.eth (@Raullen) September 30, 2025
The crypto market followed Washington news throughout the past month and each day without a deal added another layer of caution. Liquidity remained thinner across major exchanges and some traders pulled back from aggressive trades until Congress showed a clearer direction.
The shutdown affected federal workers as well. More than 600,000 employees were furloughed at the start, while others worked without pay.
National parks and museums closed, air traffic delays increased and funding concerns around programs like SNAP increased pressure on lawmakers.
Prediction Markets React to Every Headline
Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi turned political gridlock into a steady flow of data.
Polymarket in particular showed a 54% chance that the government would reopen between Tuesday and Friday. Those odds doubled from the day before and bettors even tracked longer ranges.
Earlier in the week, they placed 60% odds on the shutdown running past November 16 and total volume reached more than $4.8 million as interest grew among retail and institutional traders.
Kalshi produced similar numbers as traders on the platform assigned a 73% chance that the shutdown would stretch beyond 44 days.
They also gave 65% odds that it would last more than 45 days.
New Policy Ideas Add Fuel to the Debate
President Trump announced that most Americans will receive a $2,000 dividend from tariff revenue and around 85% of adults will be eligible.
Supporters argued that the payments would ease financial strain during the shutdown and critics claimed the proposal would add tension to debates about federal spending.
President Trump on Sunday claimed that a “dividend of at least $2000 a person” will be paid to all Americans except for “high-income people,” saying the country is now wealthy as a result of his tariff policies. https://t.co/dn4qm55G1U pic.twitter.com/d0vWT7KrSN
— ABC News (@ABC) November 9, 2025
A separate dispute involved provisions tied to the Affordable Care Act. Trump pushed for changes that would redirect ACA funds to individuals rather than insurance providers.
That suggestion produced strong reactions but little progress. Lawmakers from both parties used the issue to blame each other rather than find a middle ground.
Overall, traders are now looking for signals from both chambers. A final Senate vote could set the stage for a return to normal operations.
Several analysts pointed out that Bitcoin moved strongly after the last long shutdown and a repeat could happen as the cryptocurrency attempts to find its footing again after last week’s crash.