Cryptocurrency markets on Polymarket indicate that the odds of Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) setting a new record high above its previous peak of around $201 by December 31, 2025, remain slim, despite strong interest at several price levels.
Currently, the market assigns a 57% chance to the $200 outcome for the semiconductor giant, suggesting traders see it as most likely that Nvidia will finish the year near this level, but not above its prior all-time high, according to data retrieved by Finbold on December 9.
The probability of Nvidia reaching $215 is 19%, $230 at 4%, and ultra-bullish levels of $245 and $260 at under 1% and around 1%, respectively. Overall, while traders anticipate elevated prices, the chances of a new record above $201 remain low.
Lower outcomes are also factored in, with a 10% chance of NVDA stock finishing near $165 and a 5% chance of ending at $160. The $190 bracket carries an 85% probability, indicating strong confidence that the stock will stay elevated even as expectations for new highs remain muted.
Overall, the distribution points to a stable but capped outlook, with little conviction that Nvidia will break into record territory over the next year.
Nvidia stock fundamentals
Traders’ odds reflect both supportive and cautionary factors around the artificial intelligence (AI) giant.
The company continues to benefit from surging AI-infrastructure demand, strong data-center revenue, and its upcoming product roadmap, including the Blackwell platform and Rubin architecture slated for late 2025.
As of press time, Nvidia stock was trading at $185, having closed the last session up nearly 2%. In pre-market trading on Tuesday, the stock showed strength, at one point gaining around 2%.
Notably, NVDA shares are gaining momentum after President Donald Trump announced that the U.S. will allow the company to sell its H200 AI chips to approved customers in China, subject to a 25% levy. The move eases previous export restrictions and applies similarly to AMD and Intel.
The announcement comes as Congress considers a bipartisan bill that would block H200 and Blackwell shipments for 30 months, leaving policy direction uncertain. Still, renewed access to China was enough to lift Nvidia shares, as investors priced in revived demand.
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