Arthur Hayes isn’t trying to predict the next hot token — he’s predicting which blockchains will still be alive when the hype cycles are over.
Key Takeaways
- Arthur Hayes expects most new layer-1s to suffer extreme declines due to high FDV and low circulating supply structures.
- He believes only Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana and Zcash are positioned to remain relevant long-term.
- Despite the warning, Hayes is extremely bullish on the wider crypto market because he expects massive global liquidity expansion.
In his latest appearance on Altcoin Daily, the former BitMEX CEO drew a clear line between projects that exist to survive market cycles and those that exist to thrive only during them.
Hayes said the crypto market is entering a phase where liquidity expansion — not halvings, not hype — will dictate growth. He expects governments to unleash large capital injections ahead of political campaigns, especially in the United States. In that type of environment, he believes crypto “goes vertical,” but with a catch: the strong get stronger while speculative experiments collapse even faster.
Who Hayes Thinks Actually Survives
Pressed to name networks he believes will remain relevant after the bull run ends, Hayes didn’t hesitate. His list was remarkably short: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana and Zcash. He said every other layer-1 should be treated as “an experiment first, an investment second.”
His personal allocation mirrors that belief. Hayes recently confirmed that Zcash is the second-largest holding in his family office Maelstrom — only Bitcoin is bigger — reflecting his conviction that privacy-focused technology will become a central theme in digital finance.
Why Monad Became a Flashpoint
It was only after laying out his view of crypto’s long-term winners that Hayes turned to recently launched networks. He argued that the industry keeps repeating the same pattern: huge funding rounds, aggressive marketing, tiny circulating supplies, giant fully diluted valuations and an early price spike powered by retail speculation.
Monad, the new layer-1 backed by Paradigm’s $225 million raise and launched this week with a MON token airdrop, is the newest example in his view. Hayes expects MON to behave like other “high FDV, low-float” assets — rapid excitement first, crushing unlocks later.
He did not mince words: he believes the token could lose 99% of its value once insider supply hits the market. He called this not a criticism of technology but a warning about token economics designed to reward early investors at the expense of late ones.
A Bullish Message Hidden Inside a Harsh Warning
Despite the criticism of Monad’s incentives, Hayes is not bearish on the market. He said the most aggressive part of the new crypto cycle is still ahead and that liquidity growth — not technical upgrades or narratives — will be the fuel.
In his words, Bitcoin reacts before any other asset when the global money system changes. It panics first when credit tightens and rallies first when governments open the taps. For Hayes, Bitcoin is “the only fire alarm central banks can’t unplug.”
That is the difference in his message: the space may be entering a massive bull phase, but he expects fewer winners than ever before.
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Alex is an experienced financial journalist and cryptocurrency enthusiast. With over 8 years of experience covering the crypto, blockchain, and fintech industries, he is well-versed in the complex and ever-evolving world of digital assets. His insightful and thought-provoking articles provide readers with a clear picture of the latest developments and trends in the market. His approach allows him to break down complex ideas into accessible and in-depth content. Follow his publications to stay up to date with the most important trends and topics.