Crypto and DeFi in 2026: Adoption, Innovation, and the Road Ahead

Having surpassed the halfway point of 2025, it’s clear that crypto and DeFi are no longer on the fringes of the financial system. From banks issuing their stablecoins to Fortune 500s pursuing blockchain projects, what was once an obscure industry, often incomprehensible to many and disparaged for its volatility, has now been projected into the mainstream.

Much of this has been driven by positive policy updates, with passed legislation such as the Genius Act providing regulatory clarity and fostering confidence, alongside the growing acceptance of digital assets as a viable payment method in the real economy.

Furthermore, as crypto and decentralised finance (DeFi) continue to develop, the coming years are likely to introduce more advanced digital infrastructure, transforming our understanding of asset ownership and digital identity. Over the course of the next 12 to 18 months, I believe five key trends will shape the future of decentralised finance and its technologies.

Bitcoin Price to Reach $300,000 in 2026

The cryptocurrency market will sustain its bullish momentum into the second half of 2025, with Bitcoin (BTC) poised to test and potentially surpass $200,000 by year’s end, ultimately climbing to $300,000 in 2026. This surge will be propelled by robust institutional inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, the lingering effects of the recent halving on supply dynamics, and accelerating global adoption.

Current demand outpaces supply by a factor of approximately five, with no indications of abatement. Given these imbalances, Bitcoin is likely to embark on an uninterrupted bull run, mirroring the sustained upward trajectory of the U.S. stock market over the past 15 years.

Total Public and Private Companies Owning Bitcoin Will Reach 200 in 2026

I anticipate that by 2026, 200 public and private companies will incorporate Bitcoin into their balance sheets, marking a substantial increase from the 124 reported in June 2025. This represents a growth of 45–77% within six months, fueled by favorable regulatory developments, Bitcoin’s appreciating value, and heightened corporate confidence in digital assets as a strategic reserve.

Among these, treasury-focused companies akin to MicroStrategy will number 30–40 by year’s end, accounting for an additional 10–15 adopters. This expansion will be driven by ongoing institutional momentum, compelling case studies—such as MicroStrategy’s 1.69x NAV multiple—and international emulation, exemplified by Japan’s Metaplanet. Furthermore, initiatives like the U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and state-level efforts will solidify Bitcoin’s role as a normalized corporate asset.

Retail Adoption Will Hit 60% of the American Population in 2026 Through Payment Rails

As of 2025, cryptocurrency has penetrated 28% of U.S. adults (66 million), primarily for speculative or investment purposes, according to sources. Adoption is projected to surge to 60% by 2026, driven by the expanding utility of stablecoins in powering everyday payment technologies.

As these stablecoins and related applications become seamlessly integrated into daily transactions, they will draw in the average American. Our forecast envisions that the 90-120 million peer-to-peer users in the U.S. will universally embrace stablecoins or tokenized investment products.

On-Chain Finance (DeFi) Will Integrate RWAs and new forms of yield in 2026 via structured products

Decentralized finance (DeFi) is on course to double its total value locked (TVL) to $250 billion by next year, catalyzed by advancements in Bitcoin-based yield strategies, the tokenization of real-world assets (RWAs), and the incorporation of new yield products. Tokenized real estate, alongside offerings from regulated institutions providing yield-bearing products, will channel fresh capital on-chain, effectively doubling the TVL.

Internet Identity Will Be Redefined Through New Technology

For decades, the internet has relied on Transport Layer Security (TLS) protocols, but a transition to ZK-TLS is emerging to better safeguard individual data and privacy while facilitating verifiable data exchange for transactions. These transactions will be recorded on blockchain. Users stand to benefit profoundly, as large data companies will no longer retain unconsented information. This shift will fundamentally redefine digital identity, empowering individuals with unprecedented control over their personal data.

What This All Means

As crypto and DeFi continue to shed their outsider status, with regulatory clarity improving and integration with traditional systems deepening, the stage is being set for broader adoption of digital assets and innovations in how we think about ownership and identity. This isn’t just going to change attitudes; it’s going to unlock new economies and remove friction in digital silos. This all leads to a broader point: crypto and its supporting frameworks are no longer on the fringes; they’re rapidly becoming mainstream.

John Wu has over 20 years of experience as a fintech thought leader and technology investor. He is the President of Ava Labs, an Andresseen Horowitz-backed technology company, building the next-generation blockchain platform: Avalanche.