Investors in the cryptocurrency market are constantly on the lookout for the next ‘altcoin season’ to make a killing. However, according to crypto analysts Austin Arnold and Ben Cowen, it might not be the right time to invest in altcoins just yet. In a recent video analysis, the duo warned investors against buying altcoins right now.
The Importance of Bitcoin Dominance
Bitcoin dominance is a measure of the total market capitalization of Bitcoin relative to the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies. As Austin pointed out, the dominance is already at 52.5% right now when you exclude stablecoins.
This means that altcoins have continually been devalued on their Bitcoin pairs throughout this market cycle. Ben said that in order to truly get to the end of the altcoin reckoning, the altcoin season index indicator needs to come back down to around five or so, which hasn’t happened yet.
As the two pointed out, Bitcoin’s dominance is not going to go higher forever. They predict that it will likely reach around 65% this time, which isn’t much higher than its current level.
As we all know, Bitcoin dominance occurs when Bitcoin goes up, not when Bitcoin goes down. The implication of dominance is that it shows the flow of the cycle. Once the dominance is at a high level, then a lot of money can flow into the altcoin market and investors can splurge.
The Altcoin Season Index Indicator
The altcoin season index indicator tells investors if the market is in Bitcoin season or altcoin season based on the previous 90 days. Austin explains that every year and a half, two and a half years, the metric needs to come to this deep value on Bitcoin season where the metric comes down to around five or so.
In the last cycle, the altcoin season index indicator had a double bottom where it went into Bitcoin season a little bit, but it only lasted for a couple of months before everything took back off again. This move looks very similar to what we had in 2019, where there was a double bottom on the altcoin season index indicator, said Austin.
Investors need to be cautious when it comes to investing in altcoins at this point in the market cycle. According to Arnold and Cowen, altcoins might not be worth the risk again until the finalization of that altcoin reckoning after Bitcoin has truly taken back the market cap percentage that it should be at. They advise investors to hold off on buying altcoins until Bitcoin dominance reaches a much higher level.
Source: https://coinpedia.org/altcoin/crypto-analysts-warn-against-buying-altcoins-heres-what-needs-to-happen-first/