Coinbase Stocks Drop 24% as Crypto Weakness Lingers

• Coinbase shares drop 24% in 30 days as analysts cut targets after Q4 results.
• $4B in five-week crypto outflows signal sustained market selling pressure.
• Coinbase holds $11.2B cash; trading may drop 20%, services up 14%.

Coinbase Global Inc. shares are facing renewed pressure as analysts downgrade and persistent crypto market outflows weigh on sentiment, even as the company maintains a sizeable liquidity buffer. The stock has fallen more than 24% over the past 30 days, reflecting investor caution following its latest earnings report and continued weakness across digital asset markets.

Coinbase reported fourth-quarter 2025 revenue of $1.79 billion and earnings per share of $0.66. Despite results that exceeded some expectations, several firms adjusted their outlooks in response to broader market conditions and company-specific trends.

China Renaissance reduced its price target from $301.50 to $223.20 while maintaining a buy rating. Morningstar cut its fair value estimate from $188 to $160 and shifted its assessment to “fairly valued.” Monness Crespi Hardt reiterated a sell rating with a $120 price target, citing valuation concerns and stablecoin-related risks.

Additional revisions followed. Compass Point lowered its target to $140 and maintained a sell rating, pointing to declining trading volumes. Piper Sandler reduced its target to $150 after adjusted EBITDA missed estimates. Needham cut its target to $230 but kept a buy rating. H.C. Wainwright reiterated a buy rating with a $350 price target.

Market Data Signals Sustained Selling Pressure

Sector-wide data shows continued outflows. Investors withdrew $288 million from crypto investment products last week, extending a five-week streak totaling $4 billion in net redemptions. Twelve listed spot Bitcoin ETFs have also recorded five consecutive weeks of outflows amounting to $3.8 billion.

According to data from Longbridge, Coinbase’s Bitcoin Premium Index has remained negative for 39 consecutive days, exceeding prior correction phases and indicating sustained selling activity from U.S. investors.

In addition, on-chain analytics from CryptoQuant show that whales account for 64% of Bitcoin moving onto exchanges. The current downcycle has reached 140 days, compared with an average peak-to-trough duration of approximately 350 days.

More than $591 million in leveraged long positions were liquidated amid recent volatility, while the stock’s beta of 3.7 has amplified price swings, contributing to a 46% decline over six months.

Liquidity Position and Policy Developments

Despite operational headwinds, Coinbase ended 2025 with $11.2 billion in liquid resources and $2 billion in crypto investments. Morningstar projects a roughly 20% decline in trading revenue this year but expects subscription and services revenue to grow about 14%.

Chief Executive Officer Brian Armstrong appeared on CNBC alongside Senator Bernie Moreno to discuss the CLARITY Act. Prediction markets reflect mixed expectations, with Kalshi showing over 70% odds of passage and Polymarket indicating 52%.

Related: Ark Invest Coinbase Shares Offload Continues; Sells Shares Worth $25M