A “Cambrian explosion” in crypto might just about be ready to begin, says Ryan Zurrer.
“We’re on the cusp of both bitcoin and ether ETFs being readily available within the next six months. I would argue that we’re probably a year out from coherent regulation in the US.”
On the Empire podcast (Spotify/Apple), the founder of Vine Ventures and Dialectic AG tells Blockworks that he anticipates “a lot of demand side pressure” with the impending possibility of a spot bitcoin ETF.
“A lot of institutions that would like to hold one or two percent for treasury management in mature crypto like bitcoin [BTC] and ether [ETH] can do so — and do so very easily and at a low cost level.”
Months away from acceptance?
Citing a recent podcast discussion with Hal Press, Delphi Digital co-founder Tommy Shaughnessy says ETFs “change the aura of acceptance in crypto.”
“When everybody is able to buy it, it ushers in this acceptance and everybody’s okay working for a crypto company, everybody’s okay pushing for new regulations, everyone’s okay holding the tokens.”
Zurrer reiterates, “we are months, not years away from coherent regulation around widespread participation in crypto.”
“Gensler’s gone next November because Trump is clearly taking the White House and Gensler‘s [in the] Democrat pocket,” Zurrer says. He expects Trump’s attitude toward crypto to be more positive than it has been in the past. “Since Trump made so much money on his NFTs, I assume he’s got a little bit better perception of crypto at this point,” he says.
Angel investor Santiago R. Santos expresses pleasant surprise at the current sentiment in America regarding crypto, despite all the failures in recent memory. With the amount of value destruction across Celsius, FTX, Voyager, and Terra, Santos expected the industry to be set back “a decade,” but to his surprise, he says, “that’s not the case.”
He expects crypto ETFs to follow a similar trajectory as gold ETFs did years ago, having first been approved in Europe and later being ushered into America.
“Markets are highly efficient,” Santos says. “As soon as you see that — and the amount of opportunity that’s being left on the table — it will push the US to adopt a more coherent regulation.”
“It’s just going to take this coming election cycle to run its course. And after that, I think we’re going to have clear visibility.”
Money talks, especially in politics
In the meantime, politicians may push on anti-crypto proposals to create “inflammatory headline-grabbing stuff,” Santos says, “but it is important to track the developments that are happening in the courts,” he says. “The courts are ultimately the ones that tell you the interpretation and how these things are going to be adopted.”
An ETF would solidify the industry as “an asset class that is here to stay,” Santos says. “Whether you like it or not, we don’t care. There’s money here, there’s innovation, and that’s going to happen.”
Zurrer replies, “I have faith in the decentralization of wealth and power that crypto has caused.”
“Ethereum spawned somewhere in the tens of thousands of millionaires,” he says, “and those people are writing checks to politicians and telling them that they are single-issue voters that care about this matter.”
When it comes to policy in America, Zurrer says, “money talks, especially in politics.”
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Source: https://blockworks.co/news/crypto-regulation-ets-bitcoin-ether