Chances of An Altcoin Season: This Metric Dampens Hope

Key Insights:

• Altcoin Season Index is at 51, still far from the 75 level needed for full confirmation.
• Bitcoin dominance has dropped sharply, and altcoin open interest is at $47 billion, near 2021 highs.
• ETH/BTC and ETH dominance have not broken out, keeping broader altcoin rallies from taking off.

Altcoins are heating up. Ethereum, Solana, XRP, and even some meme coins are rallying hard. The crypto crowd is getting loud again. Many believe the “altcoin season” is finally here. But the numbers say, not yet.

Let’s unpack the real data and figure out why this might still be the warm-up phase, not the main event.

The Rotation Has Started, but Ethereum Isn’t Leading Yet

The Altcoin Season Index just touched 51, up from below 40 a few weeks ago. This number is important.

It tracks how many of the top 50 altcoins are doing better than Bitcoin in the past 90 days. If that number goes over 75, it means a true altcoin season is on.

At 51, we’re above the halfway mark but still far from a confirmed signal.

Now look at Bitcoin Dominance. It has dropped from 65% to 58.9% in the past month. That means traders are moving their money from BTC to altcoins. This is one of the first signs that an altseason might be starting.

But here’s the problem: Ethereum is not leading this shift.

ETH Dominance is still under 15%, far below the 2024 peak of 22.5%. In fact, when we chart ETH against BTC, the pair is still moving sideways. There’s been no breakout. Also, at press time, BTC just touched a new all-time high, while the likes of ETH and SOL are still behind.

That matters because altcoin seasons usually start when ETH gains strength against BTC. Right now, Ethereum is barely keeping up. Until ETH dominance picks up, this rally is not convincing.

Open Interest Is Rising, but so Are the Risks

The total Altcoin Open Interest has now reached $47.01 billion. This is the highest level since November 2021, during the last euphoric cycle.

Open Interest refers to the number of futures contracts that haven’t been closed yet. When it rises fast, it means more traders are betting on higher prices.

But there’s a detail that changes the tone.

Almost half of this OI comes from Ethereum alone, over $23.6 billion. That’s a good thing, but we already saw that ETH’s price action isn’t exciting yet. So most of this interest could be passive exposure or early positioning.

Solana comes next at $7.4 billion, followed by XRP at $3.9 billion. Other coins like AVAX, DOGE, LINK, and BNB fill the rest.

This tells us two things: Traders are focusing on large caps. And small caps haven’t joined the party; yet.

The high OI means more leverage is in play. If prices drop suddenly, there could be massive liquidations. That’s a clear risk. And until ETH breaks out, this leverage could turn a foe rather quickly instead of being an ally.

Altcoin Season Sentiment Is Building, but It’s Not Peak Yet

Another key signal is Google Trends. Searches for “Altcoin Season” are growing again, especially in the past 7 days. But this interest is below the 2021 highs, at least in terms of coins per queries.

Do note that in 2025, the number of altcoins is way higher, and therefore, to show the same level of sentiment, the interest metric should go way higher.

The crypto community is excited. X (formerly Twitter) is full of “altseason is here” posts. Top traders are showing charts, open interest spikes, and dominance flips.

But real market euphoria has not arrived. This is clear from muted retail interest and the slow move in ETH/BTC.

Also, the Altcoin Season Index itself is still far from the 75 mark. That’s the level where 75% of top altcoins beat Bitcoin’s returns. Until we get there, the market remains in pre-season mode.

This is why traders are being cautious, especially with so many over-leveraged positions.

The data shows altcoins are gaining ground, slowly but surely. Bitcoin dominance is falling. Altcoin open interest is surging. Traders are excited again.

But Ethereum isn’t leading. ETH/BTC is range-bound. And the Altcoin Season Index is only at 51. That’s not enough to call it a confirmed altseason.