Can Quantum Computers Break Crypto? Vitalik Buterin Breaks Silence

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin said there is a 20% chance that quantum computers could break today’s cryptography by 2030.

This comment has raised questions about blockchain security and whether Bitcoin and other systems are prepared for such risks.

The Vitalik Buterin Prediction on Quantum Computers

According to recent updates, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin said quantum computers could put cryptography at risk.

Weighing on the crypto and Quantum computer argument, he estimated a 20% chance they might break today’s systems before 2030.

He also said 2040 was a more likely date for these new computers to pose threats to current cryptography.

Buterin’s comments came in response to research and forecasts shared on the platform Metaculus.

The platform collects predictions from experts, and its median estimate placed the year when cryptography might be broken at 2040.

Still, the 20% chance before 2030 has drawn wide attention because of the possible risks involved.

Meanwhile, the issue about quantum computing threat to financial systems is not new. In 1994, mathematician Peter Shor showed that large quantum computers could break the digital signatures used to protect financial systems.

In a major twist, nearly 30 years later, blockchains such as Bitcoin and Ethereum still rely on those same methods.

Again, this has led to new concerns about whether today’s systems are ready for quantum technology if it develops faster than expected.

Why Upgrades are Becoming Important

It is important to add that experts said the real challenge was not only the chance that attackers could read old data.

For example, Ian Miers, a cryptographer, explained that the bigger problem was soundness.

This means ensuring that blockchains and cryptographic systems can be trusted even when facing stronger computing power.

Miers said systems like STARKs, which are cryptographic proof tools, may have to be developed further.

He noted that zero-knowledge methods could become more common, as they compete with new post-quantum tools designed to stay safe against stronger computers.

In addition, some projects have already started making changes, with Quranium coming off as one example.

Instead of keeping the old methods, the blockchain redesigned its security system from the ground up.

It is important to add that the Quranium team used two new signature methods, SLHDSA and SPHINCS, which were already approved by NIST.

Essentially, this simply showed that some blockchains were beginning to build security for the future.

Vitalik Buterin’s warning suggested that more blockchains might also need to make changes if they want to stay safe in the coming years.

Is Bitcoin Safe Against Quantum Threats?

It is important to add that the debate also focuses on Bitcoin. Bitcoin relies on older digital signatures that researchers said could be broken by quantum computers.

If such machines became powerful enough, Bitcoin’s system could be at risk unless upgrades are made.

The comparison between different blockchains showed how the focus had shifted in recent times.

For example, the largest digital asset, Bitcoin, is often described as a symbol of decentralization, while Ethereum is known for programmability.

Newer projects may even be known for their quantum resilience. If anything, this shows that security design itself may now become a key factor in blockchain development.

It is worth adding that currently, quantum computers that can break these systems do not exist. However, the timeline presented by Buterin placed a level of urgency on the issue.

If there is a 20% chance that current cryptography could fail before 2030, then preparing now may be the only way to reduce risks in the future.

The question of whether Bitcoin can remain safe without redesigning its security continues to draw attention.

For now, the debate around quantum computing has added another challenge for cryptocurrencies as they plan for the coming decades.