Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan Says Trump’s Crypto Order May Break Cycle

The recent executive order signed by the U.S. president Trump concerning cryptocurrency has led to debates on the effects it may have on the four-year cycle of Bitcoin. According to Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan the policy shift could push the bull market beyond 2026. As the long cycle is still active.

The Four-Year Pattern of Bitcoin’s Market Cycles as Per Bitwise

The historical data suggests that Bitcoin follows the four-year cycle. Here three years are of growth, and one year is of decline. Similar to BTC, there have been similar trends since the start of 2014, 2018 and 2022 with major dips.

For the Bitwise CIO, the year 2025 is expected to be another great year for Bitcoin, following the trends of 2023 and 2024. He said,

”We’re on the record as having predicted that Bitcoin’s price will go above $200,000 this year, thanks to inflows into  ETF and corporations and governments buying Bitcoin.”

But he also mentioned some signs of the system being over-leveraged. More and more people entering the Bitcoin lending programs, leveraged ETFs, and derivatives trading. He believes, we may be witnessing a market that is overheating. In the past such conditions have been followed by sharp corrections.

Trump’s Executive Order and Market Implications

On the 25th of January, President Trump issued an executive order that stated digital assets expansion is a national priority. The order requires proper guidelines, possible inclusion of stablecoins into the existing markets, and a bitcoin reserve by the United States.

The Bitwise CIO referred to this as “overwhelmingly bullish” for the crypto industry. ”The launch of ETFs was a big enough event to bring hundreds of billions of dollars into the crypto ecosystem from new investors,” he said. However, the total integration of crypto—that which is foreseen by Trump’s executive order—will generate trillions.

– Advertisement –

The executive order also changes Washington’s position regarding cryptocurrency regulation. The recently formed digital asset working group is likely to help design the proper framework for regulation and decrease legal risks for institutional investors.

Institutional Adoption and Market Evolution as per Bitwise CIO

Hougan noted that institutional buying has never been this high. In early 2024 spot Bitcoin ETFs were approved and this paved the way for traditional financial institutions to invest in cryptocurrency.

”The ETF approvals were just the beginning,” Hougan said. ”Thanks to the new guidelines, leading banking institutions may start providing crypto custody, state funds may invest in Bitcoin, and stablecoins may become a standard tool of P2P transfers.”

If these changes happen further in the future, then Bitcoin market cycles will be less volatile than they are today. In the past, the price of Bitcoin has been more tied to speculation and retail interest than anything else. When institutional investors are injecting long term capital into the ecosystem, the cycle swings of the asset might not be as dramatic as they have been in the past.

Is the four-year cycle going to be disrupted?

However, Hougan explained that he is still not willing to completely rule out the possibility of the Bitcoin historical cycle. ”I still think that leverage will increase as the bull market goes on,” he said. ”There will be some bad actors and at one point we can witness a very steep decline.”

Nevertheless, he expects future corrections to be both shorter and less severe than in the previous cycles. ”The crypto space has matured,” Hougan pointed out. “There are now more value-oriented investors, and a broader base of institutional participants.”

As for whether Trump’s order will change Bitcoin’s market cycles for good, Hougan is convinced that the current bull market is not over yet. For the time being at least, it is full steam ahead. That is all,” he said, “the crypto train is leaving the station.”