Binance Coin: Can $1.2B BNB burn trigger a rally in Q1 2026?

Binance has doubled down as the largest exchange and the leading EVM chain in terms of activity in recent years. However, Ripple [XRP] flipped the altcoin, transforming it into the fourth-highest-capped Layer 1 blockchain.

Recent market activity suggests that Binance’s native cryptocurrency, BNB, might be gearing up for a rally. Will Q1 2026 be bullish for the altcoin, and will it reclaim its third position?

How massive token burns could impact BNB?

As per data from BNBBurn.info, the cryptocurrency was set for a massive token burn in the first quarter of this year. The last quarter of 2025 saw about $1.276 billion, accounting for 1.371 million Binance [BNB] waiting for burn execution.

As the markets navigated through Q1 2026, another $1.217 billion in BNB was set to be permanently removed from circulation. This was equal to more than 1.374 million BNB, about 1% of the circulating supply.

Source: BNBBurn.info

The burning of these tokens would reduce the supply, which is bullish, but only if it’s met with demand. This could spark a rally for the altcoin in Q1 once the burns have been executed.

More chain activity on BNB Chain!

In addition to the upcoming burn, which is considered bullish, the chain activity on BNB was also performing well. BNB led all other EVM chains with active addresses, with a record of about 2.63 million.

The chain outpaced Sei Network [SEI], Polygon [POL], Base Chain, and Ethereum [ETH], which followed each other, respectively. BNB’s addresses were double that of second-placed SEI.

Source: Sei Network

Once again, the stablecoin supply on the BNB Smart Chain surged to a new peak, approaching $16 billion. This was an addition of almost $2 billion in less than two months, as the rise started in mid-November.

Source: Dune Analytics

This demonstrated that the stablecoins, used to inject capital into the blockchain, provided sufficient liquidity for the chain. As a result, the price of the altcoin could follow the trend seen in its on-chain activity.

Will the altcoin be bullish in Q1?

Looking at the charts, BNB prices have been trading in a range since mid-December. Inside this range, its price rallied during the first week but failed to break past $921, extending the consolidation.

At press time, the MACD was extremely bearish, and the Net Volume at $512 was positive but insignificant in terms of magnitude.

The token burns and increased chain activity could change this outlook for this year’s first quarter. A break above $921 could see BNB reclaim its peak and even surpass it.

Source: TradingView

However, this was not guaranteed, as the broader market sentiment also needed to align.

Final Thoughts

• BNB Chain was set for more than $1.2B in token burn, reducing its circulating supply as its activity boomed.  
• BNB price was trading in a sideways consolidation, but the activities on the chain could spark a breakout.