Key Insights:
- The Altcoin Season Index has climbed to 82, its strongest level since December 2024.
- Market signals show we are in phase three of the cycle, with coins like SOL and XRP leading.
- On-chain data and history suggest the true altcoin euphoria is still ahead, not behind us.
The crypto market is again seeing discussions related to the “altcoin season.” The Altcoin Season Index, a popular tracker, just touched 82. For many traders, any score above 75 signals the start of altseason, a phase when coins other than Bitcoin and Ethereum start to shine. This is the highest reading since December 2024.
But does this really mean altcoin season has arrived?
The data shows a more mixed picture. While signs are strong, history and on-chain charts suggest that the true wave of altcoin euphoria may still be waiting ahead.
What the Altcoin Season Index Really Shows
The Altcoin Season Index is a simple index to read. It looks at whether altcoins are doing better than Bitcoin over the past 90 days.
If most altcoins are beating Bitcoin, the score goes higher. Once it moves above 75, many traders call that “altseason.”
At 82 now, this is the strongest signal since last December.
Well-known analysts like Carl Moon are even calling this the biggest altseason yet. Big names like Solana (SOL) and XRP have led much of the charge. Their strong gains pushed the score higher, and many smaller altcoins have followed.
Still, it’s important to slow down. The index tells us when altcoins are beating Bitcoin, but it does not say if we are near the peak of excitement.
That needs a deeper look at market phases and other details.
Where We Are in the Cycle
A trader called Rekt Fencer explains the altcoin season in four simple phases.
First, money flows into Bitcoin. Then it moves into Ethereum. Next, large-cap coins like Solana or XRP take the spotlight. Finally, the last phase brings true “altseason,” when many smaller coins pump hard.
Right now, the market looks like it is in phase three. Coins such as SOL and XRP are doing well, but the full rush into small-cap altcoins has not started. That is usually the moment when traders see the biggest gains and also the most risk.
Even though smaller coins like PUMP and M have rallied, the entire small-cap space is still relatively silent.
This matches other key metrics.
Three benchmarks are often used to confirm altseason:
- The ratio of “others” to Bitcoin
- Bitcoin’s share of the market (called dominance)
- The total market cap excluding Bitcoin, Ethereum, and stablecoins
None of these have yet reached the same highs seen in past altseasons. In simple words, the fire has started, but the flames are not showing yet.
Why the Euphoria May Still Be Ahead
On-chain signals and history give another reason for patience.
Analysts at QCP note that the total crypto market cap is now about $1.73 trillion, a 90-day high. Flows into Ethereum and rotation into large-cap coins like SOL and XRP are also strong.
Retail traders are joining, but the “extreme greed” levels that usually mark the final stage are not here yet.
History helps explain this. In 2021, altseason peaks only came after months of retail mania, when everyone from new investors to casual traders jumped in. We are not seeing that level of crowding yet.
This suggests there is still room for growth. If the cycle follows the same path, the current rally could be the setup for something bigger, not the final act.
The Altcoin Season Index hitting 82 is a strong signal and the highest in nearly a year. But by looking at phases, on-chain data, and history, it seems we are not yet at peak euphoria.