Altcoin Season In 2026? Depends on These Conditions

Key Insights

• A top analyst said that the recent crypto ETF approvals have sparked hopes for an altcoin season.
• The declining Bitcoin dominance has further bolstered market confidence.
• The market expert said that the altcoin ETFs must attract more than $50 billion through the final quarter of 2026.

The crypto ETF hype has taken the financial markets by storm in recent days, indicating a shifting focus of institutions from BTC to altcoins.

This has also spurred discussions over a potential altcoin season ahead due to the soaring appeal.

However, despite the speculations, a leading market analyst said that a true altcoin season would depend on a specific set of conditions.

The conditions, he noted, would confirm if the coming months will become a defining year for the broader cryptocurrency space.

Altcoin Season Would Depend on Crypto ETF Momentum

The current wave of crypto ETF activity has changed market dynamics in ways many did not expect.

In other words, the growing excitement around crypto ETF approvals has pushed investors to look beyond Bitcoin, sparking optimism over a potential altcoin season ahead.

In a recent X post, market expert Shanaka Anslem Perera said that institutions once channeled liquidity mainly into Bitcoin, leaving altcoins struggling for attention.

However, he noted that past patterns vanished as billions flowed only into BTC products.

According to his interpretation, the shifting market focus from Bitcoin to Ethereum and then to smaller tokens has now fueled the altcoin season optimism.

In addition, the ongoing inflow into the crypto ETF reflects the institutional interest in altcoins besides BTC.

Perera highlighted that the altcoin sector suffered pressure as more than a million new tokens launched in 2024.

He explained that most failed quickly and drained market liquidity. He also pointed out that on-chain transparency created a competitive environment where traders copied the same signals, leaving little room for conviction.

All these factors fueled the belief of altcoin “extinction.” However, Perera argued that the tide turned in 2025 as dozens of altcoin ETF filings appeared.

He noted that more than 30 gained approval, bringing nearly $6 billion in institutional inflows.

In addition, he stated that Bitcoin dominance dropped from above 65% in June to around 58% by November.

In his view, this shows institutions are shifting their focus towards the altcoins through the newly launched crypto ETF in the space.

Institutional Adoption Vs Supply Pressure to Decide Altcoin Season

Perera warned that altcoin supply remains a serious threat. He said upcoming token unlocks exceed $3 billion each month.

Meanwhile, he added that tokens typically fall by an average of 18% after these events.

In his assessment, altcoins will only recover if investor demand absorbs new supply faster than it enters the market.

His X post suggests that the analyst believes that the future hinges on two indicators. First, the crypto ETF, excluding the BTC-related funds, must attract more than $1 billion in weekly inflows.

By Q4, 2026, the expert said that the altcoin ETF must attract at least $50 billion to confirm a likely altcoin season.

Second, monthly token unlocks must remain below $5 billion. If these conditions hold, he predicts altcoin dominance may settle between 15% and 25% by late 2026.

But if supply keeps outpacing demand, he warned that dominance could slip below 10%, leaving only Bitcoin and Ethereum as strong institutional plays.

In other words, such a condition would invalidate the altcoin season optimism.