$13 Billion in Token Unlocks Incoming: Volatility Ahead for Crypto Markets

In the coming half year, a veritable tsunami of token unlocks is set to smash into the crypto space.

The unlocks will make available for trading some $13 billion worth of new crypto assets, and they will do so in a most unimpressive—in fact, unwieldy—manner. Not only are the unlocks mostly concentrated by sector and month, but they are also, in many cases, concentrated in individual tokens. This uneven release schedule threatens to create upward volatility for the unlocked tokens and, in some cases, for the sectors they belong to.

How the landscape is expected to shift between June and November 2025, from artificial intelligence to meme coins, and from Layer 2s to restaking protocols.

October and July to See the Heaviest Release Pressure

Even though token unlocks are slated for the latter half of 2025, two months stand out as potential market disruption points: October and July.

October is the month that will unlock the most value—almost $4.8 billion—from two sectors very much in the spotlight: AI and DePIN. These two areas together are responsible for emissions with a total value of over $4.8 billion, the vast majority from just three projects: Worldcoin ($WLD), which is taking the lead with $1.29 billion; $TAO with $427 million; and $GRASS with $410 million. Not only are these three projects the main value unlocks that DePIN and AI have to offer in October, but they also exemplify the very type of overlap that could land the Bitcoin ecosystem in some hot water in the not-too-distant future.

As for July, it is meme coins that dominate its events. The notables among them are $TRUMP, which will execute a mind-boggling unlock that will send a staggering $2.03 billion worth of tokens—which is 84.1% of its circulating supply—into the wild. Over six months, meme coin unlocks will total around $2.8 billion, so July’s not only part of the whole unlocking narrative but is, in fact, the bulk of it. We’re talking here about a hugely concentrated event risk in the memiest of meme assets, with 72.5% of emissions coming from a single token.

Sector-Wide Emissions Show Risk Concentration

When examining the releases from the many different sectors, it’s clear that the emissions from AI-related projects take the top spot at $3.42 billion. In a distant second are the meme tokens—something that I still have trouble getting my head around. Those are responsible for $2.8 billion in unlocks! Layer 2s, a generally positive development for the Ethereum network, follow in third with $1.27 billion.

In the fields of Liquid Staking and Liquid Restaking, the amounts and emissions are significant. The Liquid Staking sector alone will see the unlocking of a massive $1.15 billion worth of tokens, with the peak amount unlocked coming in August. The leading token here is $ENA, with a whopping $484 million (22% of its supply) set to be unlocked. Following behind is $ETHFI, with $302 million worth of tokens set to be unlocked. What’s interesting is that $ETHFI also shows up in the Liquid Restaking category, which adds another $302 million to its tally and makes it one of the central players in both sectors.

The Restaking segment, slated to release $665 million in value, is highly concentrated and peaks in November. $ETHFI, $EIGEN, and $LAYER comprise 76% of emissions here.

At the same time, DePIN spews forth $1.38 billion in emissions and very much parallels AI projects, like $TAO and $GRASS—hence the heft of this month’s impact. As for RWA (real-world assets), that’s seeing just $304 million worth of emissions unlocked but in a far more balanced way. Not a single project’s emissions come close to exceeding the $100 million threshold.

Over the next 6 months, $13B worth of tokens will hit the market.
Not gradually. Not evenly. And definitely not quietly.

• AI leads with a $3.4B wave in October
• Memes spike big in July — one token dominates
• Layer 2 heats up mid-year with $1.3B

Here’s the full breakdown -… pic.twitter.com/6f79J71iwg

— Tokenomist (prev. TokenUnlocks) (@Tokenomist_ai) June 4, 2025

Smaller Sectors, Bigger Ratios

Although they represent smaller amounts in absolute dollar terms, sectors such as SocialFi and Gaming expose unique risks due to their high unlock-to-circulating supply ratios.

SocialFi plans to release $1.26 billion worth of tokens in a semi-annual format that peaks in June. The two principal tokens involved, $CHEEL and $CONX, represent 85% of the total and will release amounts that are over 14 times greater than their current circulating supply—$CHEEL’s case will be over 13 times (in $CHEEL’s case, over 13 times) their current circulating supplies. This token release is significant, especially considering that it could be or drive a supply- or price-related shock.

Gaming unlocks are mild, with only $520 million set to be released. September should bring the largest pushes, starting with the $91 million emissions from $IMX, then a second place of $65.7 million from $APE, and followed up nicely by #BIGTIME with $29 million. Overall, it still feels like the sector is under low pressure compared with other sectors that are facing emission challenges and could lead to price-reducing headwinds.

$13 billion in tokens are about to be unlocked. On top of that, they will be unlocked at noticeably concentrated intervals. So, as tolerance of the bear market further engulfs the crypto space, those most affected could be the institutional investors and protocols that have staked assets on the layer 1 and layer 2 protocols most prone to this tokenomics-induced downside. Watching this scenario unfold in slow motion is keeping us on the edge of our seats. Will it trigger a major market correction beforehand? Will the space just be a lot more muted post-unlock?

Disclosure: This is not trading or investment advice. Always do your research before buying any cryptocurrency or investing in any services.

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