XRP is entering a decisive technical phase this week as traders track a symmetrical triangle pattern that closely resembles Bitcoin’s consolidation before its 2024 breakout.
With ETF inflows gradually stabilizing, improving regulatory clarity, and an emerging Elliott Wave structure on lower timeframes, XRP now sits at a critical junction that could dictate its next major move in November 2025.
While community excitement often spikes around similar setups, the current structure is supported by a broader mix of technical and fundamental catalysts now converging at the same moment.
Triangle Pattern Echoes Bitcoin’s 2024 Structure, But Context Matters
A recent market comparison highlights structural similarities between Bitcoin’s breakout from its $24,000 consolidation zone in early 2024 and XRP’s ongoing triangle formation near $2.65. The chart, shared by market watcher Steph_iscrypto, points to a near-identical symmetrical triangle that previously preceded a strong Bitcoin rally.
XRP’s $2.65 symmetrical triangle mirrors Bitcoin’s 2024 breakout, hinting at a potential explosive move. Source: @Steph_iscrypto via X
However, symmetrical triangles—especially on high-liquidity assets—carry a breakout success rate that varies depending on market conditions. Historically, Bitcoin’s triangles following periods of heavy liquidity inflows show a higher probability of continuation, but XRP’s past attempts have been mixed. Several triangle formations over the last decade have failed due to regulatory pressure, thinning liquidity, or broader market risk-off shifts.
This time, the backdrop differs: U.S. regulatory clarity, ETF access, and a notable uptick in institutional order flow provide structural support that XRP did not benefit from in earlier cycles. These conditions strengthen the case for a breakout but do not guarantee follow-through without volume confirmation at the upper boundary of the pattern.
ETF Momentum Strengthens Foundation After Long-Awaited Regulatory Resolution
XRP’s regulatory landscape shifted significantly after Ripple and the SEC reached a $125 million settlement in August 2025—an outcome documented in court filings that officially ended years of uncertainty over the asset’s status. With appeals dismissed, U.S. exchanges and asset managers resumed direct engagement with XRP products.
This led to the launch of seven spot XRP ETFs on November 13, 2025, which collectively generated approximately $58 million in first-day volume, according to issuer dashboards and exchange data. While XRP declined around 8% in a classic “sell-the-news” move, ETF demand offers a longer-term liquidity base rather than a short-lived speculative spike.
Additional buying activity from Japan and South Korea, two markets with historically strong XRP adoption, has also contributed to steadier inflows over the past month. This cross-regional demand helps create a more consistent liquidity profile—an important factor when evaluating whether a triangle breakout can sustain momentum.
XRP/BTC Pair Shows Structural Improvement as Momentum Indicators Flip
The XRP/BTC pair has become a critical sentiment gauge for traders assessing whether XRP can outperform Bitcoin in the near term. Analyst @jaydee_757 highlighted a potential weekly resistance break supported by a bullish MACD crossover—an indicator that often signals strengthening relative momentum when confirmed on higher timeframes.
A weekly breakout on the XRP/BTC chart could signal XRP outperforming Bitcoin, according to the trader’s technical setup. Source: @jaydee_757 via X
A close above the long-term descending trendline would mark XRP’s most notable structural shift against Bitcoin since mid-2021. From a technical standpoint, this matters because XRP rallies historically perform better when its BTC pair trends upward, reflecting improving capital rotation rather than isolated spot-price volatility.
Still, traders generally look for multi-week confirmation and consistent volume before treating such shifts as trend reversals rather than temporary spikes.
Elliott Wave Structure Targets $2.62, but Traders Monitor $2.31 Invalidation Level
On the 4H chart, analysts tracking Elliott Wave behavior identify a developing Wave 3, with the 1.618 Fibonacci extension projecting a move toward $2.62. This target also aligns with the upper boundary of the symmetrical triangle, making it a key confluence zone.
XRP Elliott Wave analysis shows Wave 3 targeting $2.62, with $2.31 as key invalidation for the bullish setup. Source: abdulahalkasid on TradingView
Key technical levels:
- Wave 3 target: $2.62
- Wave 4 pullback: Determined after Wave 3 conclusion
- Wave 5 projection: Expected to complete a higher-timeframe impulsive structure
- Bearish invalidation: $2.31, representing the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of internal Wave 4
A decisive close below $2.31 would invalidate the current impulse count and shift expectations toward a corrective scenario. Historically, XRP has seen multiple invalidations of early wave structures during periods of low liquidity or uneven ETF inflows, so risk management remains important for traders tracking the setup.
For readers evaluating breakout legitimacy, common confirmation metrics include volume expansion at the triangle’s upper boundary, wick-to-body candle strength, and funding rate normalization during upside volatility.
Additional Fundamentals Support—but Do Not Guarantee—Momentum
Beyond charts, several fundamentals provide context for the current setup:
- On-chain activity: XRP Ledger transactions have trended slightly higher over the past month, reflecting growing application-level usage rather than purely speculative flows.
- Ecosystem development: Ripple has stepped up institutional-partnership discussions in Asia and the Middle East, regions where enterprise adoption historically leads to long-term utility-driven demand.
- Market liquidity: U.S. ETF listings have improved the depth of order books compared to 2023–2024 levels, though systemwide crypto liquidity remains below the peak observed during Bitcoin’s early 2024 breakout.
These elements collectively strengthen—but do not guarantee—XRP’s ability to mirror Bitcoin’s prior price performance.
Final Thoughts
XRP sits at a pivotal point where technical structure, fresh regulatory clarity, ETF-supported liquidity, and improving XRP/BTC momentum intersect. While the symmetrical triangle resembles Bitcoin’s 2024 pattern, XRP still needs a clear breakout above the $2.62 zone, supported by volume and confirmation candles, to validate the bullish thesis.
XRP was trading around 2.27, down 7.73% in the last 24 hours at press time. Source: XRP price via Brave New Coin
As the asset nears the apex of its compression zone, traders are preparing for a potential volatility spike—whether it materializes as an upward breakout or another period of extended consolidation depends on the strength of incoming liquidity and the reactions around key support levels such as $2.31.