Key Points
- Bitcoin’s 2021 bull run began when spot and derivatives rose together, pushing price from $30K to above $65K.
- Current data shows derivatives remain strong, but spot volumes lack the persistence seen in past bull market beginnings.
- Technical outlook places support at $108K and a target at $116K–$117K if Bitcoin holds inside the Ichimoku cloud.
2021 July – November Bull Run:
Derivative volumes remained strong, but significant spikes in spot volume triggered the rally. When spot and derivatives rose together, Bitcoin surged from $30K to over $65K.
2022 Spring – Bear Market:
Derivatives stayed dominant, while spot volume weakened. With spot demand fading, Bitcoin fell from $40K to nearly $20K.
2022 Summer – Fall:
Although there were occasional spot volume increases, they lacked sustainability. As a result, Bitcoin consolidated around $20K without strong upward momentum.
Current Situation:
Derivatives still dominate, while spot volume is not showing the same strength and persistence seen at previous bull market beginnings.
Current Spot and Derivative Dynamics
Meanwhile according to Coinglass data derivatives trading remains robust, while spot activity delivers mixed signals across exchanges. Futures volume surged 22.35% to $100.34B, yet open interest slipped 0.73% to $81.16B, reflecting profit-taking.
Options markets recorded growth as options volume rose 8.17% to $4.46B and open interest advanced 4.07% to $49.89B. These figures highlight increased speculation and hedging, but they do not replace sustained spot demand.
Spot exchanges showed diverging flows. Binance led with $54.07M in trading and a net inflow of $12.44M. Bybit followed with $26.45M in volume and $4.06M inflow, while Crypto.com posted $21.15M and $3.58M inflow. Conversely, Upbit and OKX reported small outflows of $785.96K and $675.14K respectively.
Technical Outlook and Price Levels
On the daily chart, Bitcoin reclaimed the Tenkan-sen and closed inside the Ichimoku Kumo cloud, turning momentum neutral. The price sits near $110.9K, while the lower cloud boundary clusters around $110K to $111K.
If price holds inside the cloud, the next magnet is the Kijun-sen level near $116K to $117K. Failure to sustain this reclaim could shift $110K–$111K back into resistance, with near-term support around $108K.
Speculative flows dominate, yet the sustainability of rallies still depends on spot demand. Without consecutive surges in spot volume, derivatives alone may drive volatility but fail to confirm a lasting bullish phase.
| DISCLAIMER: The information on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. We encourage you to do your own research before investing. |
Source: https://coincu.com/analysis/will-rising-spot-volume-trigger-bitcoins/