Speculation around El Salvador’s Bitcoin strategy has moved beyond trading desks and into prediction markets, where odds are rising that the country’s holdings could be worth $1 billion before the end of 2025.
President Nayib Bukele ignited fresh interest this week after joking on X about Kalshi’s market that tracks the milestone. His lighthearted post coincided with a sudden surge in betting activity, briefly pushing the odds of El Salvador hitting the target by November from 20% to nearly 40%. Within hours, competing platform Polymarket rolled out its own version of the wager, placing a 43% chance on the government’s stash crossing the billion-dollar line by December 2025.
Why Traders Care
The country currently reports 6,282 BTC — about $709 million at today’s prices — meaning a rally of roughly 40% would get it there. That outcome doesn’t seem far-fetched in a market that has seen Bitcoin swing thousands of dollars in a single day. For prediction market traders, the bet is not only about Bitcoin’s price, but also about whether Bukele continues adding to the treasury, something he has hinted at repeatedly.
Lingering Transparency Questions
El Salvador’s Bitcoin policy has never been short on controversy. In 2024, finance officials told the IMF that new purchases had stopped after securing a $1.4 billion loan, yet Bukele and the country’s Bitcoin Office kept posting about ongoing acquisitions. That contradiction left outsiders questioning the accuracy of official figures, but it hasn’t stopped crypto supporters from celebrating the strategy as a bold experiment.
Markets on the Rise
The popularity of the wager also highlights the growth of prediction platforms themselves. Just last week, Clearing Company — a new project led by a former Polymarket and Kalshi executive — secured $15 million in funding from backers including Coinbase Ventures, underscoring investor appetite for real-money forecasting tools.
The Bigger Picture
For Bukele, the bet has become another way to frame his nation’s Bitcoin adoption as a global spectacle. For traders, it’s a chance to profit from volatility. And for the broader crypto industry, it raises an unusual question: could a sovereign nation’s balance sheet end up being decided, at least in spirit, in the same betting markets where users once gambled on sports scores and election outcomes?
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Alex is an experienced financial journalist and cryptocurrency enthusiast. With over 8 years of experience covering the crypto, blockchain, and fintech industries, he is well-versed in the complex and ever-evolving world of digital assets. His insightful and thought-provoking articles provide readers with a clear picture of the latest developments and trends in the market. His approach allows him to break down complex ideas into accessible and in-depth content. Follow his publications to stay up to date with the most important trends and topics.
Source: https://coindoo.com/will-el-salvadors-bitcoin-stash-hit-1-billion-traders-are-betting-on-it/