Retail investors, along with institutional investors in the options market, seem weary of Bitcoin’s probability of reaching $100k by the end of the year. Bitcoin’s strike price of $100,000 which is closing on December 27, has only confidence of 9.5% bidders in the options market.
The $100,000 strike price has an implied volatility bid of about 54% and an ask of 55.9%, indicating that the market has less confidence in Bitcoin, touching $100K by the end of 2024. On the other hand for a strike price of $82,000, the bid is roughly oh 0.090, while the ask sits at oh 0.094, suggesting a slightly better chance of Bitcoin reaching the $82K mark.
According to data by Deribit, there seems to be a more plausible opportunity for Bitcoin to approach $82,000 than $100,000.
Will Bitcoin Reach $100K?
The option pricing showing only a 9.58% chance of BTC hitting $100k could be discouraging for many bullish investors, especially considering the recent positive uptrend BTC has enjoyed. The market’s overall outlook seems to be quite subdued. This underconfidence is not something investors are pulling out of thin air!
An important factor to consider is the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, which is scheduled for November 6th and 7th, where a rate cut is anticipated. While a rate cut is often thought to be good news for BTC the current economic landscape suggests that the Fed’s actions may not entice investors to invest in BTC that would be necessary to reach the $100k mark.
Moreover, the US presidential election scheduled for November 5 adds another layer of complexity. While markets generally experience high volatility during elections due to the uncertainty around future policies.
The race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris is currently in a tight contest, with much of the potential for the price changes following the election can be more or less predicted. So far, BTC reaching $100,000 seems to be far-fetched.
Additionally, the BTC Volatility Index has remained stable between 50 and 60%, far below the peak of 85% volatility which was observed earlier in 2024. This reinstates that traders do not foresee any dramatic price uptick needed for Bitcoin to cross the $100,000 threshold this year.
At press time, Bitcoin is priced at $67,824 with a 50-day simple moving average of $62,256, which indicates that the ongoing stability in volatility points at a slow and steady upward trend, making it highly unlikely for BTC to catapult to $100,000 by the close of 2024.
Also Read: Ripple Files Form C in SEC Case; Can XRP Price Recover the Dip?
Source: https://www.cryptonewsz.com/will-bitcoin-reach-100k-only-bidders-favor/