Bitcoin (BTC) recently dropped to $81,000, causing concern among investors.
However, the BTC price quickly rebounded today, rising back to $92,000. As market volatility continues, prediction platforms are rapidly increasing their positions on whether Bitcoin will reach $100,000 before the end of the year in December.
Prediction market data shows investors are split on whether six-figure levels will be tested again this month. Contracts trading under the heading “What price will Bitcoin reach in 2025?” have a 49% probability of hitting the $100,000 threshold.
In other price scenarios, optimistic expectations are priced in with very low probabilities:
- $105,000: 30 percent probability
- $110,000: 18 percent probability
- $115,000: 10 percent probability
- $120,000: 6 percent probability
- $130,000: 4 percent probability
- $140,000–170,000 band: There are marginal possibilities in the 1–2 percent range.
Meanwhile, signs of risk aversion are clearly visible in prediction markets. There’s an 80 percent chance Bitcoin will reach $95,000 by the end of the year, while the probability of it falling to $80,000 is priced at 28 percent.
*This is not investment advice.