Cryptocurrency prediction platform Polymarket has updated the probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 again before the year is out to 50%.
According to other scenarios on the platform, the probability of BTC exceeding $110,000 is 18%, while the probability of it falling below $80,000 again is 37%.
While the market’s focus is on a renewed upward trend, volatility remains high. Bitcoin gained 1.69% in the last 24 hours to $91,431. On a weekly basis, it’s up 5.11%.
Global macroeconomic dynamics play a significant role in these optimistic expectations. Pictet Asset Management strategist Luca Paolini stated that they predict the US dollar will begin to weaken again next year. According to Paolini, the expected slowdown in the US economy will create room for further interest rate cuts by the Fed, and the dollar’s interest rate advantage will rapidly shrink.
Paolini stated, “We expect the US economy to weaken somewhat, which will gradually ease inflationary pressures.” He argued that, in contrast, economic growth in Europe and Japan will begin to recover. He also noted that the dollar’s current valuation remains relatively high.
*This is not investment advice.