Key Insights
- Matrixport predicts Bitcoin price to consolidate due to tight crypto liquidity.
- Bitcoin holds above $92K amid expiry as Deribit revealed call and put were balanced.
- Bitcoin may see high volatility, with options activity remaining skewed toward puts.
- Analyst predicts odds of hitting $100K if Bitcoin breaks above the $92,000-$94,000 zone.
Crypto market participants survived $4.5 billion in Bitcoin options expiry on Friday. Bulls strongly held Bitcoin price above $92K, sparking speculation of a rally towards $100K.
Here’s what experts such as crypto analysis firm Matrixport, on-chain platform Glassnode, derivatives exchange Deribit, and others expect on market direction.
Bitcoin Price to Consolidate Amid Tight Crypto Liquidity
Matrixport predicts Bitcoin price to consolidate rather than rally in the near term. The firm cited persistent tight crypto liquidity as the reason.
The US FOMC cut interest rates by another 25 bps, but the Fed’s 2026 monetary projection revealed uncertainty. Matrixport claimed the crypto market is yet to price in the guidance.
Bitcoin price tumbled below its long-term moving average. Tighter crypto liquidity and lack of retail trading create challenges despite macro support.
Matrixport analysis suggests that the market’s current conditions do not support a major upward move towards $100K.
Why Didn’t Prices React to Today’s Bitcoin Options Expiry?
According to the largest derivatives crypto exchange Deribit, more than 39K Bitcoin options with a notional value of $3.7 billion expired today. The put-call ratio was 1.10.
Moreover, the max pain price was at $90,000, significantly lower than the current market price of $92,465. However, BTC price continued to hold above $92K.
Deribit said call and put interest were almost balanced, suggesting traders expect a contained expiry following the latest rebound.
The clustering around 90K reflects a market waiting for the next catalyst rather than leaning into directional conviction.
Options data from Deribit reveals that both Bitcoin and Ethereum are likely to remain range-bound throughout December.
Glassnode Reveals Falling Bitcoin Implied Volatility
Glassnode reports that on-chain data indicates shrinking liquidity across the crypto market. Bitcoin price will likely enter a high-volatility regime in the weeks ahead.
It added that Bitcoin options implied volatility is diminishing. Skew and flow data points to a market expecting limited upside.
Additionally, the options open interest put/call ratio continued to rise over the past weeks. Even after the FOMC meeting, options activity remains skewed toward puts.
Will Bitcoin Price Move to $100,000 or $90K?
Crypto analyst Ted Pillows pointed out that Bitcoin price is moving into the $92,000-$94,000 resistance zone. For a surge to $100,000, bulls need to hold price above it.
If bulls fail to hold, any further tightening or negative sentiment could push Bitcoin price below $90,000.
The $100,000 target remains a focus for bullish investors due to current range-bound market conditions.
He added that the bear flag formation in the 12-hour timeframe is hard to ignore. Bitcoin price close above the $96,000 level will invalidate this bear flag.
However, if BTC drops below the $86,000 level, it could push prices below the April 2025 lows. BTC price at this level is $75,000.
At the time of writing, BTC price was trading more than 2.5% higher at $92,440. The 24-hour low and high are $89,335 and $93,554, respectively.
Trading volume stays muted in the last 24 hours at $68.68 billion. This indicated cautious trading among traders.