Following the recent decline in cryptocurrency markets, prediction market Polymarket has updated its data on whether Bitcoin will fall below $100,000 by the end of the year.
According to data on the platform, the probability of Bitcoin falling below $100,000 before the end of 2025 has risen to 62%, with the odds increasing by 15% in the last 24 hours.
Bitcoin fell nearly 5% to $105,540 on Monday. This sharp decline wiped approximately $182 billion out of the crypto market. However, both Bitcoin and the broader market recovered somewhat by the end of the day. Currently, Bitcoin is trading at $106,857, with the total crypto market value around $3.6 trillion.
Analysts say the decline may be due to comments made by Fed Chair Jerome Powell last week. Powell had previously emphasized in December that a rate cut was “not a certainty” and dampened market expectations for easing.
Analyst Simon Peters stated that following these announcements, the probability of a rate cut at the December FOMC meeting dropped from 96% to below 70%.
*This is not investment advice.