Why Macro Now Rules BTC Price Action

• Ash Crypto says that Bitcoin’s price has always moved more in step with the global economy.
• The last three global business cycles each lasted approximately four years.
• Dan Gambardello points out that the Truflation index has reportedly fallen to about 1.21%.

According to crypto analyst Ash Crypto, the conversation about where Bitcoin is headed next is changing. Instead of just focusing on its predictable four-year reward event, analysts are now looking more at the bigger picture of the overall economic cycle.

Ash Crypto suggests that Bitcoin’s price has always moved more in step with the global economy than with its own internal events like reward halvings. The core idea is that when the economy is growing and money is easy to access, risky investments like Bitcoin do well. However, when the economy slows down and money gets tighter, crypto uptrends usually can’t keep going.

The widely referenced four-year Bitcoin cycle comes from the fact that the last three global business cycles each lasted roughly four years. During those periods, when the economy hit its high point, so did Bitcoin’s price. Similarly, when the economy reached its low point, Bitcoin hit its lowest price in a downturn.

Ash Crypto also noted that for the last three years, macro indicators pointed to a slowing or flat economy. This is a key reason why Bitcoin hasn’t seen a dramatic, long-lasting price surge, even with significantly positive news, like Bitcoin ETFs and more big companies getting involved.

Furthermore, the analyst raised a key point, saying that the US government extended debt maturities by roughly one and a half years after COVID-era rate cuts. This move may have stretched out the current economic period. If that’s the case, the next huge crypto bull run might arrive later than the typical four-year cycle would suggest.

Potential Turning Point

Crypto investor Dan Gambardello points to another economic indicator, noting that the Truflation index (a modern gauge of inflation) has reportedly fallen to about 1.21%. Because Truflation updates constantly and serves as an alternative to official government reports, a number this low usually suggests the economy is cooling, not heating.

Historically, when inflation goes down, it has usually led to:

• The central bank is making it cheaper to borrow money 
• Pause or pullback in the government’s efforts to shrink its balance sheet
• Lower returns on investments after adjusting for inflation

These conditions tend to be good for Bitcoin and other growth-focused investments, but this positive effect typically begins once the economy starts growing again after a slowdown.

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