The long-held belief that Bitcoin’s bull and bear markets revolve around its halving events is being challenged.
Analyst James Check argues that adoption trends and market structure, not the four-year reward cuts, dictate the cryptocurrency’s major cycles.
According to Check, Bitcoin has so far moved through three distinct phases: an “adoption cycle” between 2011 and 2018 powered by early retail investors, an “adolescence cycle” from 2018 to 2022 defined by leverage and boom-bust speculation, and the ongoing “maturity cycle,” which began after the 2022 bear market and is now being shaped by institutional involvement. He believes the 2017 peak and 2022 low were pivotal turning points that mark transitions between these phases.
A Split in Market Views
Check’s perspective diverges from the widely accepted halving cycle theory, which links market peaks to the supply shock created by reduced mining rewards. By this measure, Bitcoin’s prior rallies in 2013, 2017, and 2021, and the expected continuation into 2025, fit neatly into the four-year model.
Other voices in the market have echoed Check’s skepticism. Bitwise CIO Matthew Hougan suggested the four-year pattern has run its course, noting that the next true test will be Bitcoin’s performance in 2026. Popular analyst TechDev has also argued that liquidity cycles explain Bitcoin’s swings more accurately than halving dates.
Signs of a Late-Stage Market
Glassnode, however, maintains that Bitcoin remains broadly aligned with its traditional cycle, pointing to recent profit-taking and mounting selling pressure as hallmarks of a late-stage bull phase. Position trader Bob Loukas added that cycles are inevitable, even if their timing shifts: “We pump until it bursts, then start again.”
For Check, Bitcoin is evolving into a more stable, institutionally backed asset—one that may eventually be seen as a long-term store of value alongside gold. If that view holds true, the old four-year playbook may no longer define the market’s rhythm.
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com does not endorse or recommend any specific investment strategy or cryptocurrency. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Alex is an experienced financial journalist and cryptocurrency enthusiast. With over 8 years of experience covering the crypto, blockchain, and fintech industries, he is well-versed in the complex and ever-evolving world of digital assets. His insightful and thought-provoking articles provide readers with a clear picture of the latest developments and trends in the market. His approach allows him to break down complex ideas into accessible and in-depth content. Follow his publications to stay up to date with the most important trends and topics.
Source: https://coindoo.com/why-bitcoins-next-bull-run-might-break-the-old-cycle/