The belief that Bitcoin will automatically hit its top price before the year ends is built on shaky statistical ground, according to a leading market commentator.
PlanC, a Bitcoin analyst active on X, argues that many traders are overconfident in the assumption that history must repeat itself. He compared the mindset to a gambler expecting the outcome of a coin toss to remain the same after several flips. With only three previous halving cycles to study, he said, there simply isn’t enough data to justify certainty about when the market will peak.
Questioning the Halving Narrative
For years, traders have tied Bitcoin’s bull and bear markets to the network’s halving events, which reduce mining rewards roughly every four years. PlanC believes that framework is losing its influence. The rise of corporate treasuries holding Bitcoin and the surge of capital flowing into U.S. spot ETFs, he noted, are more powerful forces in shaping today’s market than past halving cycles.
From his perspective, the only reason to expect a peak in the final quarter of 2025 is investor psychology. Historically, Q4 has been strong for Bitcoin — CoinGlass data shows an average return of more than 85% since 2013 — but PlanC insists that’s correlation, not causation.
Debate Over Timing
The broader analyst community is far from unified. Some expect this cycle to top out before the calendar year closes. Canary Capital’s Steven McClurg recently argued that Bitcoin could climb into the $140,000–$150,000 range before a reversal in 2026.
Others believe the rally still has years left. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan has said he expects 2026 to be another bullish year, while high-profile figures like Arthur Hayes and Joe Burnett have floated end-of-year targets as high as $250,000.
Bitcoin has climbed more than 96% in the past 12 months, trading around $111,000, according to CoinMarketCap. Whether the next decisive move comes this October, in late 2025, or stretches into 2026, traders face the same uncertainty: history doesn’t guarantee the future.
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Source: https://coindoo.com/why-betting-on-a-q4-bitcoin-peak-could-be-a-costly-mistake/