A traditional markets analyst, Aksel Kibar, published a rare warning for Bitcoin investors, and according to his technical analysis the current price recovery is not the beginning of a new bull run, but only a technical trap within a global downtrend.
Thus, he emphasizes that in fact the long-term market structure has changed, and after Bitcoin failed to hold above the key highs of last year around $127,000 per BTC, the chart formed a large broadening pattern, followed by a sharp collapse.
$60,000 could be next stop, says Kibar
Now the price of Bitcoin is below its 365-day moving average, which is a classic sign of a bear market, and any short-term upward movements in such a situation Kibar considers only temporary consolidations before further decline.
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The main reason for concern today, in his opinion, is the formation of a “rising wedge” pattern. This means that the BTC price is moving upward in a narrowing corridor, but each new local high barely exceeds the previous one. Such a structure is usually counter-trend and signals exhaustion of buyers.
Exactly at the level of $69,200, where Bitcoin is now, it is testing the lower boundary of this wedge. According to the analyst, the market has not yet found the final level for bottom fishing.
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If the wedge is broken downward, which is now happening in real time, the next targets will be $60,000, the nearest psychological support that was tested in early February, and a deeper zone at $52,000-$48,000, where the current phase of correction may end.
The analyst calls for caution and advises not to take local growth as a change of the global trend. While the price remains significantly below $90,000 per BTC, the dominant trend remains downward.