Bitcoin price drop from its all-time high may not be as simple as it looks, according to expert trader Luca, who predicts bears could be on the losing end in the weeks ahead.
He states that the current Bitcoin (BTC) price could trick bears, trapping them in the next big short squeeze.
According to Luca, it’s only a matter of weeks for this to happen. He also mentioned that the current setup mirrors a fractal that occurred last year ahead of the 2024 BTC price breakout.
Bitcoin Makers Are Laying Down the Bear Trap
Luca continued to explain that the key to understanding the direction of BTC price over the next few weeks lies in the Bitcoin exchange order books.
One of the signs that the largest cryptocurrency is yet to reach a new all time high is the absence of new higher highs. Interestingly, he pointed out this is not a bearish signal.
He observed that since BTC topped in mid-August, no highs had been taken out, and this was because short positions were being protected in the short term.
The idea is that market makers hold the market within a range to make short sellers believe their trades will work out.
The post explained that a similar setup happened in 2024, during a long consolidation phase when highs stayed untouched until the November breakout.
Luca said that the longer this setup lasts, the more complacent bears become, creating the perfect conditions for a short squeeze.
He added that this could trigger the next major squeeze in the coming weeks, and although it may seem counterintuitive, the protection of shorts and the lack of higher highs was a positive sign for the market.
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Bottom Could Sink Under $100K
According to Alphractal CEO and CryptoQuant researcher João Wedson, Bitcoin (BTC) at $111,238 may have just a month left in its four-year cycle, risking a $50,000 drop, followed by a breakout past $140,000.
A bear market could continue into October, warned Wedson, who pointed to his “Repetition Fractal Cycle” charts showing BTC/USD nearing the point where downturns often begin.
He admitted that it would be risky to rely solely on this chart, but added that Bitcoin might first dip below $100,000 before shooting past $140,000 in the same period.
Wedson explained that this cycle differed from past ones due to strong institutional involvement and Bitcoin’s rise as a major asset.
As such, he questioned whether the fractal would remain reliable in the face of ETF speculation and rising institutional demand.
He warned that a U.S. macro bear market could deal a severe blow to Bitcoin bulls if it aligns with the fractal’s timeline.
The $1 million question, he said, was whether the four-year cycle still mattered for 2025.
BTC Price Future Outlook
Meanwhile, the common downside target, as indicated by bearish signals on major indicators, is $100,000.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin (BTC) price is struggling to bounce back to $113,000 from its current price of $111,000, while CoinGlass reported $126 million in crypto short liquidations over the past 24 hours.
However, according to Rekt Capital on X, Bitcoin has fully confirmed its breakout after the correction that began in mid-August.
He said a daily close or retest of the approximately $ 113,000 level would support further upside momentum.
Source: https://www.thecoinrepublic.com/2025/09/07/while-bitcoin-price-struggles-heres-what-to-expect-next/