What Needs to Happen for Bitcoin to Reach $123K? Here Are 4 Conditions to Watch

• Bitcoin struggles to break the $104,250 resistance, reversing gains from the FOMC meeting, but historical trends suggest potential bullish momentum in February.
• Institutional investors continue accumulating Bitcoin, while retail investors exit, signaling a strong long-term uptrend despite short-term volatility and consolidation.

Bitcoin failed to break the key resistance level of  $104,250 after shedding 0.60% today, reversing nearly half of the gains from the recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. This dip, fueled by month-end volatility, puts the crypto market in a state of uncertainty. While short-term trends show a pullback, the broader picture remains bullish, with historical data hinting at more gains in February.

One of the primary conditions for Bitcoin to hit the anticipated $123K mark is overcoming the $105.5K resistance level. This barrier halted Bitcoin’s rally after the FOMC meeting and remains a crucial price point. If Bitcoin can push past this level, the next milestone of $110K—its recent all-time high set on January 20—becomes more achievable.

Since mid-November 2024, Bitcoin has been moving sideways, unable to sustain any breakout attempts. Despite multiple efforts to push higher, the price has remained stuck in a consolidation phase for the past 78 days. A successful breach of the $105.5K resistance could serve as the catalyst needed for a bullish surge.

Whales Accumulate, Retail Investors Exit

The second major factor influencing Bitcoin’s trajectory is the divergence between retail and institutional investors. Santiment reveals an ongoing shift: wallets holding between 0 to 10 BTC, typically belonging to retail investors, have been shrinking. In contrast, larger wallets containing between 100 to 1,000 BTC are steadily accumulating.

Retail investors often react emotionally to short-term market swings, frequently selling off during corrections. Institutional investors, however, operate with a long-term vision, strategically accumulating Bitcoin when prices drop. This behavior signals that the broader uptrend is still intact, and Bitcoin has the potential to set new records.

In the past, whale accumulation has been a precursor to Bitcoin’s biggest rallies. When large investors enter the market aggressively, it often triggers price surges. If this accumulation trend continues, Bitcoin’s path to $123K becomes significantly more feasible.

$123K Target Needs One More Push

Another key indicator for Bitcoin’s potential to reach $123K is whale transaction activity—specifically, transfers exceeding $100K. Since January 24, these transactions have been on the decline. Historically, spikes in this metric have driven Bitcoin prices higher, while declines indicate potential consolidation or downward pressure.

The number of #Bitcoin $BTC transactions over $100,000 has doubled in the past week, rising from 15,620 to 32,320. pic.twitter.com/2XvUdoDIX1

— Ali (@ali_charts) January 24, 2025

If whale activity reverses its current downtrend, Bitcoin’s momentum could pick up once again. Large transactions play a critical role in determining market direction, as they indicate whether institutional players are actively buying or sitting on the sidelines. A resurgence in high-value transactions could provide the necessary push toward new all-time highs.

While some indicators remain uncertain, Bitcoin has already met two of the four conditions required to target $123K: institutional investors are accumulating, and the resistance at $105K is within reach. The missing piece is a renewed surge in whale transactions.

10 out of 12 February in Gain— Will History Repeat?

Bitcoin’s historical performance in February stands out as a strong bullish signal, averaging a +15.66% return and a median of +15.32%. Notably, February 2024 saw a surge of +43.55%, marking the second-best month in Bitcoin’s cycle. In 2021, Bitcoin posted +36.78%, followed by 2020, which saw a sharp contrast with -8.6%.

With 2025 already showing +11.05% in January, analysts speculate a strong February ahead, referencing 2013’s +61.77%, 2017’s +23.07%, and 2018’s +20.08% gains. However, volatility remains, as seen in 2014’s -31.03% drop. If history repeats, Bitcoin could see another double-digit surge, drawing traders’ attention.

With two of the four key conditions already met, Bitcoin’s fate now hinges on overcoming the $105K resistance and reigniting whale transactions above $100K. If both factors align, a new peak at $123K is not out of reach. However, failure to meet these conditions could prolong Bitcoin’s consolidation phase or trigger further pullbacks.

The most crucial support stands at $96,800, where trading volume has been highest over the same period. A successful rebound from these levels may trigger another bullish phase. Conversely, failure to hold support could prompt a deeper correction before a potential rally attempt.