What Is the Probability of Early Approval for Spot Bitcoin ETFs by the SEC in the U.S.?

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• The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has the possibility to announce early approval for spot Bitcoin ETF applicants on Friday, January 5, 2024.
• According to Mario Nawfal, several sources indicate the possibility of early approval for a series of Bitcoin Spot ETF applications starting from January 5, 2024.
• Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood later expressed confidence in the approval in January 2024, stating that the discussions with the Commission were very encouraging.

Can the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission grant early approval for spot Bitcoin ETFs? Here are the latest reports!

Can the SEC Approve ETFs Early?

According to voices from various quarters, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has the chance to announce early approval for spot Bitcoin ETF applicants on Friday, January 5, 2024. The expected date for approval and the date allowing the start of ETF trading may currently be uncertain, but there is a general belief among traders and investors in favor of spot ETF approval before January 10, 2024.

According to Mario Nawfal, several sources indicate the possibility of early approval for a series of Bitcoin Spot ETF applications starting from January 5, 2024. Additionally, reports from Fox Business and hints from Bloomberg Intelligence analysts suggest chances of ETF approval coming this week. However, a more significant sentiment is in favor of definite Bitcoin ETF approval before January 20, 2024.

Significantly, January 10 is the date when the SEC can decide on the ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF application. In this context, SEC officials held several meetings with several filers who submitted a series of ETF applications. Companies like BlackRock and Grayscale organized at least 4 meetings with officials regarding spot ETF applications. Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood later expressed confidence in approval in January 2024, stating that the discussions with the Commission were very encouraging.

Information on the Launch of ETFs

Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart previously mentioned that the gap between the approval date and the actual start of trading could be weeks, not days. However, he stuck to his previous estimate that the approval could come between January 8 and 10. “I think the SEC might start publishing expectations for issuance, but I still expect official approvals to come on January 8–10,” he said. The analyst has long argued that the SEC would announce all ETF approvals simultaneously to avoid giving any first-mover advantage to any applicant.

If Bitcoin ETF trading begins within a few days, around February or March 2024, it could be a favorable position for a prolonged bull wave around the Bitcoin (BTC) price. Approaching the 100-day countdown to Bitcoin’s Halving event planned for the second quarter of this year, considering April 19, 2024, as a possible date.