Wall Street: Bitcoin is headed for $10,000 first, not $30,000

The majority of Wall Street investors do not think that the cryptocurrency bear market is over, according to a survey report by MLIV Pulse. They believe that the largest cryptocurrency, Bitcoin is more likely to collapse further to $10,000 than $30,000.

$10k Bitcoin is more imminent

Bitcoin started the week at $20,861 on TradingView, but it’s currently trading at $19,767, which represents a 5.2% decline from the week’s opening price. The market capitalization has dropped over 53% since the beginning of 2022. Bitcoin investors would want to believe that BTC is looking to form a bottom, as several metrics suggest that widespread capitulation has taken place.

However, Wall Street investors expect the price of Bitcoin to further slide by half. Of the 950 investors surveyed by MLIV Pulse, 60% of them agreed that Bitcoin is more likely to touch $10,000 first – a 40% decrease from the current price – than $30,000, which represents over a 51% increase from the current price. 

Experts believe that the $10,000 Bitcoin price prediction stems from “people’s inherent fear in the market.” The cryptocurrency market has lost more than $1.3 trillion year to date. “It’s very easy to be fearful right now, not only in crypto but generally in the world,” said Jared Madfes, partner at Tribe Capital.  

The survey also indicated that retail investors hold the most bearish sentiments than professional investors. About 24% of retail investors said cryptocurrencies “are all garbage,” and only 23% agree that cryptocurrencies are the future, compared to the 26% of professional investors, who tend to be more open-minded about digital assets.

Miners might trigger $10k 

Bitcoin miners’ activity is one significant factor to watch in order to determine if Bitcoin’s price is headed to $10,000 or $30,000 first. According to Glassnode, miners have become an influential source of selling pressure in the current market circle due to the nature of their income and the low price of BTC.

The aggregate miner balances were distributed up to 4.47k BTC/month during the LUNA-UST collapse. However, the rate of BTC distribution from miners has slowed lately, now at 1.35k BTC/month, meaning less selling pressure from miners to the market which is generally perceived to be healthy for BTC. But the rate could surge again if BTC slides further. 

The duration of miner capitulation in the 2018-2019 bear market was around 4-months, with the current cycle only having started in 1-month ago. […] Thus the next quarter is likely to remain at risk of further distribution unless coin prices recover meaningfully.

Glassnode.

Miners currently have about 66.9k BTC. Many would be forced to sell off BTC along the path to $10,000, and except the capitulation of the miner cohort takes place, the price could likely go down below the $10k range.