 
 
Bitcoin may be gearing up for one of its biggest bull runs yet, according to VanEck’s Head of Digital Assets Research, Matthew Sigel.
In a recent post on X (formerly Twitter), Sigel reaffirmed the firm’s projection that Bitcoin could reach half of gold’s market capitalization following the 2024 halving, placing its fair value around $644,000 per BTC.
The estimate draws from the view that roughly half of gold’s value represents its role as a store of value, a role younger investors increasingly attribute to Bitcoin.
“We’ve been saying Bitcoin should reach half of gold’s market cap after the next halving,” Sigel wrote. “At today’s record gold price, that implies an equivalent value of $644,000 per BTC.”
VanEck sees Bitcoin as a future reserve asset
In a detailed blog post, VanEck expanded on its long-term outlook, suggesting that Bitcoin could evolve into a global reserve asset and medium of exchange by 2050.
 
The firm outlined a scenario where Bitcoin facilitates 10% of global trade settlements and 5% of domestic transactions, potentially leading central banks to hold 2.5% of their assets in BTC. Under these assumptions, the research projects a base case valuation of $2.9 million per Bitcoin, representing a total market cap exceeding $61 trillion.
VanEck argues that Bitcoin’s design as a trustless, neutral, and immutable monetary system makes it a superior alternative to fiat currencies, which remain vulnerable to inflation and political interference. “Bitcoin applies constitutional constraints to money,” the report noted, framing it as “a system created by the people, for the people.”
Meanwhile, Bitcoin is trading at $110,815.61, as per CoinMarketCap. The MACD remains positive, while RSI readings around 64 suggest moderate overbought conditions. Analysts see potential resistance at $122,000 and support around $117,000, a zone where over 190,000 BTC were previously accumulated.
Although recent ETF outflows and macro headwinds have led to short-term consolidation, institutional interest continues to support long-term optimism.
Source: https://zycrypto.com/vaneck-sights-bitcoin-at-644000-per-coin-come-2050/