VanEck Raises Red Flag—Is Bitcoin’s Bull Market in Trouble?

• Institutional outflows and declining funding rates signal that Bitcoin’s speculative momentum is fading, potentially challenging the bull market.
• Historical corrections offer reassurance, but weak market response despite favorable regulatory shifts raises concerns about the strength of the current rally.

Global investment management firm VanEck has recently raised alarms about potential threats to Bitcoin’s ongoing bull market, citing several concerning indicators. This aligns with a recent CNF update highlighting that VanEck has outlined six key ways the U.S. could expand its Bitcoin position without impacting the federal budget.

In this article, we will identify the red flags raised by VanEck and their implications for Bitcoin’s bull market, according to the VanEck Mid-March 2025 Bitcoin ChainCheck report:

According to Bloomberg, over the past five weeks, Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have experienced unprecedented outflows totaling approximately $5.5 billion. The timing of these outflows coincides with escalating trade tensions under President Trump’s administration, which appear to be dampening investor enthusiasm for riskier assets like cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin ETFs faced their longest outflow streak since inception, losing $6.4 billion over five weeks due to Trump’s tariff policies.

Declining Funding Rates Reflect Cooling Speculative Interest

Another red flag is the sharp decline in Bitcoin’s funding rates, which have reached historically low levels. Funding rates are periodic payments between traders in the futures market, and plummeting rates often indicate a reduction in leveraged positions.

Bitcoin has just experienced its second-largest correction so far this cycle, dropping ~30% peak-to-trough from $109K in January to $76.5K on March 11th, exceeded only by a ~33% drop from ~$74K to ~$49K in August 2024.

This trend suggests that the speculative fervor that characterized the market in late 2024 has significantly cooled, potentially undermining the momentum of the current bull run. ​

Historical Corrections: A Pattern or a Warning?

Bitcoin’s recent 30% price correction is notable but not unprecedented. Historically, bull markets have weathered similar downturns; for instance, in 2017, Bitcoin experienced multiple corrections ranging from 30% to 40%, and in 2021, it saw a 55% drop before reaching new all-time highs.

The launch of the first Bitcoin-related convertible bond ETF—the REX Shares Bitcoin Corporate Treasury Convertible Bond ETF—illustrates the momentum that the Bitcoin treasury strategy is gaining.

While these patterns might offer some reassurance, the current correction is particularly striking given the backdrop of positive regulatory developments that have failed to reignite bullish momentum.

Current Bitcoin Price Performance

As of now, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $84,393, reflecting a slight decrease of 1.45% in the past day and an increase of 2.86% in the past week. See BTC price chart below.

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