US Presidential Election Outcome Will Push Bitcoin to Either $90,000 or $30,000: Bernstein

Analysts at Berstein have asserted that the outcome of the November presidential election will have short-term implications on the price of Bitcoin.

Bitcoin to Surge to New Highs If Trump Wins

In a recent report, Bernstein reiterated that Bitcoin would surge to a new all-time high if the Republican nominee, Donald Trump, becomes the next US president. Researchers at the brokerage firm expect the premier asset to break its current high of $73,949 and target the range between $80,000 and $90,000.

Bernstein analysts Guatam Chhugani, Mahika Sapra, and Sanskar Chindalia based their assertions on Trump’s warmer embrace of digital assets. Notably, Trump has repeatedly reinforced his friendly disposition towards the crypto sector.

In September, Trump became the first US president to pay in Bitcoin after he used the Lightening Network to buy burgers in PubKey, New York. He noted on one occasion that Bitcoin has a great future, and he intends for the US to lead the adoption of the nascent sector.

Notably, Bernstein’s call of an impending price surge if Trump won was not alone. Standard Chartered’s Geoff Kendrick predicted that Bitcoin will surge to $150,000 if the Republican candidate wins and $200,000 by 2025, regardless of who won the election.

Harris’ Win a Catalyst to $30,000

The researchers maintained that Harris’s win will push Bitcoin toward the lows last seen after the FTX implosion in 2022. Per the report, the largest crypto asset will fall over 50% from its current price of $62,342 to $30,000.

Notably, Bernstein’s assertions came despite Harris’ increased bias towards the crypto industry. SkyBridge’s managing partner, Anthony Scaramucci, stated that he is working with the Vice President’s camp and has made significant progress in their adopting digital assets.

Election Odds to Drive Bitcoin Price

Meanwhile, Berstein’s research has implied that the imminent November election odds will drive Bitcoin’s price bias. According to them, Bitcoin will appreciate if the odds largely tick in favor of Trump winning the election and resort to a range-bound movement if the chances become closely tied.

Notably, data from the decentralized marketplace Polymarket shows that Trump leads the poll prediction by 7.3%. The platform shows that the chances of the former president winning the November election stand at 53.4%, while that of Harris is 46.1%.

However, Bernstein predicted a different price pattern for altcoins. The firm noted that other crypto assets besides Bitcoin will remain range-bound until after the November election.

The analysts noted that altcoins will see decisive price action when the issue around the Securities and Exchange Commission chair and regulatory aides in the new government is settled. They argued that this is because regulatory unclarity was the major stumbling block to a thriving digital asset sector in the US.

Notably, another analyst shared a similar sentiment but with a different narrative, particularly about XRP. Charting Guy stated that the XRPL native token will continue to range between $0.43 and $0.67 until Bitcoin makes its next notable break to price discovery.