Understanding the Impact of Biden’s Spending Bill on Bitcoin

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• The risk of a sell-off was averted after U.S. President Joe Biden signed a temporary spending bill yesterday to prevent a potential government shutdown.
• Currently, there is a narrow window for approving all existing Bitcoin spot ETF applications simultaneously, which expires today, November 17.
• According to Matrixport, Bitcoin mining stocks such as Hive Blockchain, Marathon Digital, and Iris Energy could enter a performance period against Bitcoin.

The immediate risk of a selling wave was thwarted with Joe Biden’s signing of the bill; what path will the Bitcoin price take now?

Government Non-Shutdown Prevents Bitcoin Decline

The near-term selling risk in the crypto market was averted after U.S. President Joe Biden signed a temporary spending bill yesterday to prevent a potential government shutdown. According to Markus Thielen, Chief of Crypto Research and Strategy at Matrixport, in the event of a shutdown, possible government functions would cease, potentially leading to more profit-taking and a potential 10% drop in Bitcoin. This includes the progress of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on potential Bitcoin spot ETF approvals until January 2024.

Currently, there is a narrow window for approving all existing Bitcoin spot ETF applications simultaneously, which expires today, November 17. After this window closes, this year’s existing applications cannot be accepted simultaneously anymore—likely shifting to a scenario where a single application may be accepted within the comment window, as indicated by K33 Research analysts earlier this week, extending to January 10.

With the bill approved, momentum is maintained for a potential spot Bitcoin ETF approval, and according to Thielen, the expectation of reaching Matrixport’s year-end price target of $45,000 remains alive. This target was initially set in February when Bitcoin was trading at $22,500.

Inflation data released on November 14 showed that U.S. CPI fell to a lower-than-expected 3.2%. According to Matrixport, this decline could lead to further drops, possibly down to 1.6% in 2024. This drop could prompt significant interest rate reductions (150-200 basis points) by the U.S. Federal Reserve, triggering a continued rally in risky assets such as technology stocks and cryptocurrencies.

Thielen reiterated that this “fifth bitcoin bull market” is expected to continue until December 2024, about six months after the anticipated next Bitcoin halving event in April. He maintains a price target of $125,000.

Ethereum, altcoins, and Bitcoin mining stocks may perform better

Matrixport expects Ethereum’s revenues to reach $171 million this month, the highest level since May. This could signal a potential performance period for Ether, along with the peak of Bitcoin market dominance and increasing fees and revenues across various chains, suggesting a positive sign for the broader altcoin market. According to Matrixport, Bitcoin mining stocks like Hive Blockchain, Marathon Digital, and Iris Energy could enter a performance period against Bitcoin.