Uncertain trend today for the price of Bitcoin

The trend of the Bitcoin price today is uncertain. 

However, it could also just be a brief period of calm before the storm, expected tomorrow with the USA presidential elections. 

The trend of Bitcoin price today

Today, the trend of the price of Bitcoin is fluctuating between $68,000 and $69,000.

This fluctuation would be perfectly normal if yesterday it hadn’t dropped below $68,000, and if tomorrow there weren’t the US presidential elections. 

Last Monday, October 28th, the price of Bitcoin surpassed the threshold of $68,000 after spending a few days around $67,000.

The following day it even tried to approach the historical highs, climbing back above $73,000, but that attempt failed. 

Since then, it first fell below $70,000, and then yesterday even below $68,000. However, this last drop seemed to be excessive, and served only to fill some inefficiencies that had inevitably formed last week with the rapid rise above $73,000.

Here is how, after addressing these inefficiencies yesterday, today the price of BTC does not seem to have directionality. 

The USA elections

If there were no presidential elections in the United States of America tomorrow, the current situation would be perfectly normal, but that event is full of bull potential. 

In other words, currently it seems that Bitcoin wants to try to take advantage of these bull trends, but on the other hand, it still seems a little too early for the start of a true rally. 

And so today it moves on uncertain ground, waiting for a turning point that might come only tomorrow. 

The issue related to the USA presidential elections is quite important for Bitcoin. 

The key point is the inverse correlation in the medium/long term of the BTC price with the Dollar Index, which measures the strength of the US dollar against a basket of other important fiat currencies globally. 

Usually before the presidential elections in the USA, the Dollar Index during the electoral campaign tends to rise, because the party to which the current administration belongs tries to gain support during the electoral campaign thanks to a strong dollar. 

This dynamic tends to reverse after the elections, that is, when the administration stops strengthening the dollar for mere propaganda purposes, as it no longer needs it regardless of the outcome of the elections. 

The great bull runs of Bitcoin

Bitcoin was born on January 3, 2009, with the mining of the first block of its blockchain. 

Since then, three presidential elections have been held in the USA, in 2012, in 2016, and in 2020. 

In all three cases after the elections, the Dollar Index recorded several months of decline, and at the same time, the price of Bitcoin rose significantly with a true and proper large speculative bubble. 

Those three years are also the years in which the three halvings prior to the one in 2024 occurred. 

So not only in 2024 did the halving occur, but as in those three previous occasions, there are also the USA presidential elections, which will be held tomorrow. 

The Dollar Index

Before the 2012 elections, the Dollar Index had risen to over 83 points. After the elections, it fell below 80 points. It only started to rise again between the end of 2014 and the beginning of 2015, which was when there was the worst bear-market in the history of Bitcoin. 

Instead, in 2013 there was the largest speculative bubble ever seen inflating on the price of BTC, which went from $10 to more than $1,000 in about a year.

In 2016 the Dollar Index even rose above 100 points, and between 2017 and 2018 it fell back below 90 points. 

Precisely in 2017, there was the second great speculative bubble of Bitcoin, with the price soaring to a peak close to $20,000.

Even in 2020, the Dollar Index returned above 102 points, although due to the colossal QE by the Fed in response to the pandemic and lockdowns, it began to fall well before the elections. By the end of 2020, it had fallen below 90 points, and it remained there in 2021, when there was the third great bull run of Bitcoin, thanks to which the price rose to almost $70,000. 

This year the maximum peak of the Dollar Index was even higher than 106 points, although it has dropped a bit since July. From the end of September to the end of October, however, it rose from 100 to 104.5 points, and as of today, it seems to have already started to fall. 

The hypothesis is that during 2025 it may return to about 90 points. 

The reaction of Bitcoin price trend today

Today, despite the decline of the Dollar Index below 104 points, the price of Bitcoin did not react positively. 

It is necessary, however, to specify a couple of things. 

First of all, the inverse correlation between the price of Bitcoin and the Dollar Index is not particularly evident in the short term, but especially in the medium/long term. Therefore, it is possible that if the dollar weakens in the coming months, it will take months for the price of BTC to rise. 

The second is that today all markets are waiting for what will happen tomorrow in the USA, so it is difficult to imagine that they will move clearly and decisively today. 

Between tomorrow and the following days, when the results of the U.S. presidential elections are announced, the movements could be significantly more meaningful.