‘Trump will break’ Bitcoin promise, economist warns crypto community

An economist has warned the crypto community about President-elect Donald Trump’s promises to the sector during the campaign trail.

The Republican candidate was viewed as the crypto-friendly candidate after he promised that, if elected, he intends to make Bitcoin (BTC) part of a strategic U.S. reserve. 

He also pledged to halt government sales of Bitcoin, remove SEC Chair Gary Gensler, and oppose the development of a central bank digital currency (CBDC). 

Following his win in the November 5 polls, economist Peter Schiff has cautioned that these promises might not be kept.

Schiff acknowledged that although Bitcoin’s current highs are part of speculation around Trump’s win, he noted that optimism might be misplaced, predicting that Trump will ultimately fail to keep the promise, he said in an X post on November 6.

Notably, Schiff did not explain why he predicted Trump’s failure to keep his promises. 

In his cautionary outlook, Schiff, who has long criticized Bitcoin, suggested that gold remains the long-term go-to asset, considering the ongoing debate on the best safe haven. 

“Bitcoin may have hit a record high in dollars, but it’s still about 27% below its record high in gold. It’s rising despite the spike in the dollar and jump in bond yields, as speculators bet Trump will be the Bitcoin president. That’s one of several promises Trump will break,” he said. 

It’s worth noting that Schiff, a gold bug, has maintained a bearish stance on Bitcoin, predicting that the asset is destined for a crash. In the run-up to the polls, he warned Bitcoin investors to prepare for a possible price dump if Trump is reelected.

“Maybe all the speculators have already bought. Get ready for the Trump dump,” he said.

Trump’s winning odds and Bitcoin’s rally 

This outlook emerged after Bitcoin faltered below $70,000, failing to keep up with the rising odds of a Trump win at the time. Overall, for the best part of the campaign, Bitcoin seemed to mirror the increasing odds of a Trump victory in the prediction markets.

Trump’s win was widely viewed as bullish, with buyers sending the asset to a record above the $75,000 mark. Indeed, investors have reaped rewards from this momentum, with the new high leading to over 11,000 millionaires.

By press time, Bitcoin was trading at $74,390, surging over 8% for the day. On the weekly chart, BTC has surged over 3%.

Following this rally, most market sentiment anticipates that Bitcoin will likely target the next all-time high of $100,000. 

However, in an X post on November 6, crypto trading expert Ali Martinez observed that the current excitement might be due to traders’ fear of missing out (FOMO). 

To this end, he noted a need to stay on the fence to monitor how the situation unfolds.

What next for Bitcoin’s price?

Historical price movements suggest that Bitcoin might be in line for sustained gains, considering how it has performed in relation to elections. 

In this case, analysis by crypto analyst The Moon pointed out that Bitcoin has shown resilience and strength in the aftermath of the U.S. presidential elections, maintaining a consistent trend of never dropping below its election-day price in the post-election period.

This trend was evident in the 2016 and 2020 elections, as shown in historical charts where Bitcoin saw an initial dip around election time but surged, often reaching parabolic levels.

To this end, if Bitcoin maintains this trend, it could be a key anchor to trigger a rally towards $100,000. 

Meanwhile, attention now remains on Bitcoin’s ability to breach the $75,000 spot to rally higher. At the same time, dropping below $70,000 could spell more trouble for the leading crypto.

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