Key Insights:
- Global M2 supply just went vertical as speculations around Bitcoin price action intensifies.
- The chart tracking global M2 against the BTC price indicates that Bitcoin is ridiculously undervalued right now.
- Bonds are saturated, equities are overvalued, real estate is breaking down. The only asset with absolute scarcity and no counterparty risk is Bitcoin; as one analyst remarked, ”It’s the trade of the century”
Gold is going bananas. The stock market is at an all-time high. And now, the global M2 supply has blown through the roof as well. Yet Bitcoin stubbornly refuses to join the party like a petulant teenager. Is the bull market over? Can we shelve the idea of Bitcoin as digital gold for now? Maybe not yet. The chart tracking global M2 against the BTC price indicates that Bitcoin is ridiculously undervalued right now.
A Fair BTC Price Is $250K
Zoom out, and the writing is on the wall. Global M2 supply is an aggregate that covers cash, checking, savings, money market accounts, and small time deposits across the world’s leading economies.
When M2 surges, assets with absolute scarcity like Bitcoin should rise in lockstep. And if you look at the chart below from 2024 and 2025, you’ll see that this has been the case until now. As ZeroHedge points out:
Global M2 isn’t just loose jargon tossed out by Twitter pundits. It’s the broadest, most meaningful proxy for global liquidity. Data is collected from over 21 central banks and aggregated into a single figure.
In simple terms, M2 is the sum of cash in circulation, easily accessible bank balances, savings, and other near-money assets held globally. When M2 rises, it means the financial plumbing is being flooded. Central banks are either printing, easing, or backstopping, making more money available for risk-taking.
Historically, Bitcoin has tracked global liquidity with remarkable precision, rising as central banks open the spigot, and pulling back when the taps tighten.
Bonds Are Tapped Out, Stocks on Stilts
Where is anyone supposed to find yield or safety? Bonds have become saturated, delivering paltry returns relative to inflation risk. Equities, meanwhile, float at some of the highest multiples seen in a generation, priced for perfection in an imperfect world.
Real estate, the darling of low-rate, stimulus-driven cycles, is now showing cracks as affordability plunges and inventories soar. That leaves only the assets that can’t be printed and don’t carry counterparty risk: commodities and, above all, Bitcoin.
And here’s where the global M2 metric and the suppressed BTC price tag intersect. With M2 global liquidity still hovering near record highs, the BTC price is dramatically below what these macro bearers would imply at $250,000. As Bitcoin maxi and economist Shanaka Anslem Perera remarked:
“When Bitcoin trades below its modeled fair value, that isn’t a contradiction. it’s the trade of the century.”
Global M2 and Bitcoin: Why It Matters
Understanding why global M2 is a north star for Bitcoin boils down to one word: scarcity. When liquidity is abundant worldwide, every asset with a fixed supply becomes progressively more valuable, as long as markets are rational and risks are adequately priced.
When traditional vehicles become increasingly unattractive, capital seeks shelter where it’s treated best, flowing toward stores of value that outpace monetary expansion. Bitcoin, with its programmatic fixed issuance and zero third-party risk, stands nearly alone in offering these properties at scale.
The global M2-to-BTC fair value model is only one part of the story, of course. Geopolitical shocks, policy missteps, or regulatory pivots can change the narrative fast. Yes, the chart says $250K is “fair.” But the path there is never smooth.
Uptober, White House Announcements, and a Powder Keg
The timing, of course, is tantalizing. “Uptober” trends loom large in crypto folklore, a seasonal pattern where Bitcoin reliably shocks the skeptics. This year, the setup could be even more combustible. Rumors swirl about a major White House announcement on digital asset regulation by year-end, potentially flipping the switch for a wall of new institutional flows.
Does that mean the BTC price is guaranteed to detonate upwards? Not instantly. But all the right puzzle pieces are falling into place. If nothing else, the yawning gap between modeled fair value and actual price sets up the “trade of the century.”