Top Reasons Why Bitcoin Price is Rallying Today

Key Insights:

• Bitcoin price soars over 2% as crypto market traders brace for volatility.
• The odds of a US government shutdown are at 79%.
• Historically, the stock market and crypto have performed well during a shutdown.

Bitcoin price is rallying today as the odds of a US government shutdown climb higher. The BTC price climbed over 2% in 24 hours, breaching the $114,000 mark.

A looming US government shutdown is a scenario steeped in political drama and fiscal uncertainty, as market participants rush to recalibrate risk. Prediction markets now put the likelihood of a shutdown at 79%.

Congress is at an impasse. Republicans and Democrats are deadlocked over budget allocations and critical healthcare provisions.

President Donald Trump has canceled meetings. And Vice President JD Vance didn’t mince words, confirming yesterday:

“I think we are headed for a shutdown.”

Vance’s sentiment is echoed in Reuters’ coverage, by many others in Washington, and of course, the predication markets.

Bitcoin Price Soars as Odds of a US Shutdown Surge

Congressional gridlock is nothing new. But what’s historic is the sheer probability the lights will go out in federal agencies this week.

Besides, this has also fueled optimism over a broader crypto market rally. This is also evidenced by the recent surge in Bitcoin price.

Polymarket, a leading prediction platform, flashed odds of a US government shutdown tomorrow as high as 79%.

Negotiations are entrenched in bitter exchanges. Republicans want a simple temporary funding bill, while Democrats attach health subsidies, complicating everything.

Each side blames the other, with little progress even after last-minute talks at the White House.

Every fiscal year, starting October 1, Congress must pass 12 appropriations bills to fund government activities. None has cleared the two chambers, so most federal agencies face a near-total shutdown.

Bloomberg notes that shutdowns of this scale have not been seen since the record-breaking closure during Trump’s first term in 2018-19.

The result? Hundreds of thousands may miss paychecks, and crucial market and economic data may be delayed.

Risk Assets Historically Rally During Shutdowns

Here’s where it gets interesting for investors pursuing risk. Past shutdowns, despite “political earthquakes,” barely dented financial markets.

In fact, in 2018, the S&P 500 rose by 10% during a 34-day shutdown, the longest on record.

By Q4, seasonal factors typically boost equities, gold, and Bitcoin, sector analysts at JPMorgan and Vanguard note.

The fourth quarter is historically the strongest for risk-on assets, especially when the prior three quarters are positive.

This year’s Q4 starts tomorrow, stoking hope and speculation that the BTC price could benefit from both seasonal momentum and a flood of repositioning trades driven by fiscal noise.

Bitcoin Price in Focus as US Dollar Has Worst Year Since 1973

What’s fueling the Bitcoin price surge now? The US dollar is on track for its most dramatic drop since 1973, a decline of over 10% in 2025 alone.

The greenback’s index lost 10.8% in the first half, a drop that upended currency markets worldwide. The country’s purchasing power erosion is equally stunning: since 2000, the dollar has lost more than 40% of its value.

In 2000, $1 could buy the equivalent of nearly $1.88 in today’s dollars, underlining persistent, cumulative loss.

Fed Rate Cuts With Sticky Inflation

Layer on monetary policy: The Federal Reserve has begun cutting rates despite stubborn Core PCE inflation exceeding 2.9%.

Rate cuts in the face of such “sticky” inflation haven’t happened in more than 30 years.

Central bank hawks argue that this risks de-anchoring inflation expectations and makes the dollar even less attractive as a store of value.

Gold and Bitcoin Price Know What’s Coming Next

Investors are not waiting for confirmation. The jump in gold and Bitcoin price this week mirrors deep uncertainty about US fiscal policy, currency erosion, and the prospect for “risk-on” rallies.

Wall Street increasingly sees gold and crypto as essential hedges. They are tools for navigating future layoffs, delayed data, and fiscal standoffs.

The Bitcoin price rally in the final week of September, as US government shutdown odds rise, is both a signal and a symptom.

Gold is climbing too, reflecting inflation anxiety, political risk, and the diminishing credibility of fiat money.

Crypto, meanwhile, thrives on chaos, and Q4, rate cuts, shutdown threats, and a battered dollar offer plenty.